GOP Candidates Already Prepping for 2010 Gubernatorial Election
March 27th, 2008 by MARK DANIELS
The Columbus Dispatch is today reporting on John Kasich’s preparations for a 2010 for the GOP nomination in the Ohio gubernatorial race. No surprises there.
If one-time Columbus-area Congressman Kasich, former Senator Mike DeWine, and former Congressman (and Bush functionary) Rob Portman all seek the Republican gubernatorial nomination in 2010, it will be an interesting, well-funded race.
At this point, one can legitimately wonder whether it’ll be a race is worth making. Democratic governor Ted Strickland enjoys high approval ratings. While the governor is not well-loved by some for cuts in spending and growth in spending for some state programs, these aren’t likely to be criticized or politically exploited by Republican contenders for governor.
Kasich and I were students at Ohio State at the same time. In 1973, he was the vice presidential running mate of Marty Cummins in the Undergraduate Student Government (USG) elections. I ran for the USG assembly on an opposing ticket led by Mike White, who later became a state senator and then mayor of Cleveland. Several days before the election, I withdrew from the race because I needed to take a part-time job to continue paying for my education. I have no regrets about that: It was while working at that job that I became re-acquainted with a young woman from high school days who, in 1974, became my wife. Kasich’s ticket lost.
Kasich was always conservative, but more of the lunch bucket, Nascar variety. He retains that cache even today, in spite of his current work as an investment banker and his zillion-dollar connections with Fox News.
Each of the three likely GOP contenders for governor in 2010 can tap into separate reliable strands of campaign cash, I think. Kasich will rely on Fox and Friends money, along with sources his old ally, Newt Gingrich, may be able to give him. It’s likely that a large percentage of his campaign coffers will come from outside of Ohio, although he is popular among rank-and-file party activists around the state.
DeWine is in the tradition of GOP statewide officeholders who move up from local positions, a tradition that includes Ohio’s most effective governor in my lifetime, the late Jim Rhodes, Bill Saxbe, and others. He’s a moderate conservative who thinks that government can do some things well. Look for him to be able to tap into moderately conservative business people, mostly from the smaller towns, along with contributors from outside of Ohio who got to know him when he served in Washington.
Portman has strong ties to campaign contributors who’ve loved love being players at the national level. The zip code of Cincinnati suburb Indian Hill has forked over more money to George W. Bush’s campaigns than any other, save that of Houston. A decade ago, Portman parlayed his ties with the Bushes and those big contributors to become Jean Schmidt’s predecessor in representing Ohio’s Second Congressional District. He was wildly popular, routinely getting re-elected by close to 70% every two years. Then, came two high-profile jobs in the Bush Administration.
Of course, DeWine lost his bid for re-election to the US Senate in 2006. He has lost favor with some Ohio Republicans by being part of the Gang of 14, a group whose compromise on judicial nominations, in spite of the vociferous objections of some conservatives, paved the way for the confirmation of several overtly conservative justices on the Supreme Court and broke at least one area of the usual Washington stalemate. DeWine may find getting traction in a gubernatorial race difficult and so, not try. Moderation may be a good way to win elections, but, in a process that rewards the passion of small groups of activists and contributors, it’s tough for moderates to win contested nomination races in either party.
[This has been cross-posted at my personal blog.]
This entry was posted on Thursday, March 27th, 2008 at 8:17 am and is filed under Politics. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
