All presidential campaign front runners seemingly hit a kind of crisis bump as they take the lead in the polls — and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani has now hit a jarring speed bump in the case of his protege, aide and former police commissioner Bernie Kerik.

Kerik surrendered today to arraignment on federal corruption charges. He was indicted on 14 counts “including fraud, obstructing an FBI investigation and lying to the federal government, the U.S. attorney said on Friday.”

You can feel the thud, causing his campaign to scramble and opponents moving forward to see if there is a car crash.

Kerik’s indictment is big news.

How awkward is it for Giuliani? The issue is bound to raise questions about his a) judgment b) vetting of close people around him, c) defense (even limited) of questionable associates and d) whether a Giuliani presidency means that, if Kerik is indicted, Giuliani will pardon him (the issue has ALREADY surfaced — and is likely to dog him in media interviews and perhaps even in a debate in coming months).

ABC News reports:

A federal grand jury has voted to indict former New York City Police Commissioner Bernard Kerik on charges stemming from the acceptance of free rent and apartment renovations, tax evasion and lying on his application for the job as head of the Department of Homeland Security, two federal sources and a source involved in the defense told ABC News.

As news of the indictment spread, police in suburban White Plains, N.Y., prepared for an expected onslaught of media by setting up police barricades in front of the courthouse and a parking area for television trucks directly across from it, police officials said. And several of Kerik’s closest supporters planned to spend the evening with their friend before he turned himself into the government, sources said.

The indictment caps a wide-ranging federal probe into Kerik’s affairs that has spanned about a year. While it was not immediately clear what the specific charges were, the government’s case as it has been presented to the grand jury has multiple components that would be reflected in a multiple count indictment.

Details will emerge in breaking stories (or a series of them) today and most likely more details in media reports over the weekend.

It’s a BIG political story — and Giuliani is already seemingly tied on a rail and moving towards a political buzz saw: he has already tried to skirt a question about whether he’d pardon the former aide who he once championed to become the nation’s Homeland Security chief:

Rudy Giuliani refused to say if he’d consider pardoning his old friend Bernie Kerik - who was indicted Thursday on federal corruption charges - if elected President.

“It wouldn’t be fair to ask that question at this point,” the Republican presidential hopeful said in an exclusive interview in Dubuque, Iowa, just hours before Kerik was indicted in New York.

“He may or may not be charged, he may or may not be convicted. Who knows what happens?”

As uncomfortable and hypothetical as the question may be, it’s one of many tough queries Giuliani will face as his former police commissioner’s case winds its way through the courts amid a white-hot presidential race.

The indictments are due to be unsealed today when Kerik - whom Giuliani pushed in 2004 to be U.S. homeland security czar - is expected to be arraigned.

Giuliani has been accused of no wrongdoing, but it’s nonetheless the start of a long perp walk for Kerik filled with politically delicate potholes for the GOP front-runner.

Why is it so perilous for Giuliani?

Because he has been presenting himself in imagery terms as the highly-courageous, successful, and level-headed man who had produced wonders during his stint as New York Mayor and who had been so courageous and shown impressive leadership on early 911 moments when the President of the United States spent a lot of time in the air or in unimpressive TV statements.

Giuliani, though running for President, has been running as “America’s mayor” to become “America’s Mayor President” — with a subliminal message that he’d be a lot more competent and results-oriented than either the Democrats or the current occupant of the Oval Office.

The Kerik saga undermines a lot of this, not just calling into question his judgment, but raising questions now about if any hanky-panky is yet to be learned about Kerik’s stint under Giuliani, plus Giuliani’s own nimbleness: when does loyalty to a friend call into question whether a politico is wise enough to see the handwriting on the wall before the wall collapses on him?

As the Wall Street Journal notes, the “high concept” question that’ll arise will be: so what does all this say about Giuliani’s judgment…because this isn’t the only case raising eyebrows:

The expected federal indictment of Rudy Giuliani’s close friend and ex-business partner Bernard Kerik highlights a potential weak spot for the Republican presidential front-runner: his judgment in picking associates.

….Mr. Kerik isn’t the only Giuliani intimate facing questions about unethical or illegal actions. The common thread in these relationships is Mr. Giuliani’s unswerving loyalty to people who have earned his trust. “Clearly there’s a bond that he has with some people, as most of us do,” said Fran Reiter, a former deputy mayor to Mr. Giuliani who now supports Hillary Clinton for president.

The Journal (click on the link) gives some other examples.

And, the New York Times notes, the timing of this is not good for Mr. G:

So Mr. Giuliani said once again said that he had made “a mistake in not checking him out more carefully.” He pointed out the successes he had in New York. And almost lost in the mix was Mr. Giuliani’s effort to highlight a less well-known aspect of his own biography, and to talk up his new endorsement from Pat Robertson to Iowa voters.

Of course, a trial during the heat of a presidential campaign could prove another challenge for his bid at a crucial time.

Mr. Kerik’s lawyer, Kenneth M. Breen, has said several times during the course of the investigation that his client intends to fight the charges. And while the timing of any trial is difficult to predict, several lawyers who practice in White Plains said that the case could reach trial in six months to a year — at the height of the political season.

Giuliani’s foes within his party and outside of it could also seize on the way he has distanced from but still defended Kerik:

Rudy Giuliani said Monday that if his achievements as president are as good as the crime-reduction results of his New York police commissioner, a man now under criminal investigation himself, “this country will be in great shape.”

Giuliani, in an interview with The Associated Press, acknowledged mistakes by Bernard Kerik, who was police commissioner when Giuliani was mayor. But he said crime reduction for the city was more important.

….Giuliani has accepted responsibility for his role in Kerik’s embarrassing 2004 withdrawal as President Bush’s Homeland Security nominee after revelation of tax problems. Ethics questions and corruption allegations also have swirled around Kerik. But the former New York mayor said the results of the commissioner’s time in New York far outweigh isolated incidences.

“Bernie Kerik worked for me while I was mayor of New York City. There were mistakes made with Bernie Kerik. But what’s the ultimate result for the people of New York City? The ultimate result for the people of New York City was a 74 percent reduction in shootings, a 60 percent reduction in crime, a correction program that went from being one of the worst in the country to one that was on ‘60 Minutes’ as the best in the country, 90 percent reduction of violence in the jails.”

“Sure, there were issues, but if I have the same degree of success and failure as president of the United States, this country will be in great shape,” Giuliani said.

NOTE: This is a story “with legs.”

The trial will be going on for a while. Giuliani will be peppered with questions and his advisers could work out a response that defuses the issue. But it will remain in the headlines. The devil will be in the details: as the case against Kerik unfolds, how much will be alleged, how will Kerik defend it, and how much of it will be shown to have been on Giuliani’s watch. And then there will inevitably be a twist on an old question, reworded by Giuliani’s foes (you can see this one coming a mile away): what did the mayor know and when did he know about it?

Giuliani has already indicated he didn’t know but the question is likely to surface in the press and, perhaps, eventually, in a political ad.

Likely result: watch for tougher talk from Giuliani on security issues and stronger, more assertive attacks on Democrats to offset this likely ongoing negative political/legal story.

The irony is that the Kerik case comes just as Giuliani has defied conventional wisdom predictions early on that GOPers would unit to stop him in the end. He has remained ahead consistently in the polls, got the endorsement of Pat Robertson and early-on signaled his ability to put together a high-powered political and message-control team (one of the early people to sign on was John Avlon who wrote THIS BOOK called “The Independent Nation” which is the bible for moderate, centrist and independent voters). A MUST-READ.

But all of this proves that the conventional wisdom about negatives when it comes to Giuliani has not panned out before.

And that could indeed happen again.

HERE’S A CROSS SECTION ON WEBLOG OPINION ON THIS STORY:

–Political scientist Steven Taylor:

Well, it just got worse: Bernard Kerik: America’s Cop Indicted, which leads to the legitimate question: How Will Media Play Kerik’s Indictment?

I can’t help but think that stories about Kerik have to include Giuliani, as not only was he the Department of Corrections commissioner and the police commissioner under Giuliani (appointed, in both cases, by Giuliani), but he worked with Giuliani after they both left New York City’s government. Indeed, they had, for a time, an LLC called Giuliani-Kerik, an affiliate of Giuliani Partners. Kerik was the CEO of said affiliate. In short, theirs was hardly a casual relationship.

–Firedoglake:

The media’s obtuseness continued Thursday, when reports leaked that Giuliani’s long-time friend and partner, Bernie Kerik, could be indicted for corruption related charges, including lying and tax evasion. Media interviews of Giuliani became opportunities for Mr. Mayor to acknowledge he may not have vetted his former police chief well enough, but gosh, he sure was a good police chief. He didn’t explain why we should remember someone indicted for corruption as a “good police chief.” Perhaps now the media will ask whether a President Giuliani would be prone to appoint an FBI Director or Homeland Security Secretary who, after taking office, would be indicted for corruption, lying and tax evasion. Would Rudy pardon Kerik?

–Michelle Malkin:

The grass-roots conservative base is sick and tired of cronyism and open-borders arrogance–two traits that dominate the Bush White House, two traits on naked display in the intertwined fates of Rudy Giuliani and Bernie Kerik, two traits that dangerously undermine public confidence and public safety.

If Republicans are going to decide that Giuliani is the best standard-bearer for the party, they better do so with eyes wide open and absolute candor. He is–at best–only marginally better than Hillary Clinton on immigration and border security. He was a bad judge of character at a key moment in the Department of Homeland Security’s history. And despite his lip service and cable TV-friendly talking points, he remains obstinately committed to non-enforcement of immigration laws when push comes to shove.

–Justin Gardner:

So it stands to reason that this does not bode well for Giuliani’s credibility, right? Well…will it really matter to anybody who wants him to run because he’s “America’s Mayor?” Especially if it becomes apparent that Rudy is the only guy who has a chance at carrying the GOP to victory? I obviously think the answer to both is “no” because ultimately people want to win.

–Simply Left Behind:

Is Rudy going to have as much Teflon as Ronald Reagan? Or John Gotti, the man Rudy tried many times to put away, only to fail and leave the job to someone else?

–JammieWearingFool:

But if the media, leftwing blogs and Hillary Clinton’s poodles at Media Matters want to play gotcha, we’ll have no problem with Giuliani being grilled so long as Mrs. Clinton and her husband answer questions about their associations with known criminals and others of ill repute.

I say it’s a fair tradeoff.

–My DD:

Giuliani has been thrown on the defensive over Kerik and rightfully so. Giuliani is running on his self-proclaimed competence governing New York City and his association with Kerik calls into question something that is at the heart of his competence: his judgment.

Remember, Giuliani and Kerik aren’t merely buddies or former colleagues, Giuliani actually appointed Kerik to Department of Corrections commissioner in 1998 and police commissioner in 2000 before recommending him to head DHS. If a subtext to his candidacy is that he will be Bush except competent, then the compromised ethics of one of Giuliani’s appointees creates an immediate psychic link with Bush, who’s had so many questionable appointees himself, Kerik, briefly, among them.

–Riehl World View:

Rudy was a Big City Mayor in the Blue Northeast and, unfortunately, that often equals corruption. I’m not suggesting Rudy is, or was, corrupt. But just like in New Jersey, New York politics are notoriously corrupt. And you know what they say about laying down with dogs. The Democrat controlled government of the city will be more than happy to unearth everything they can from the past to come to Hillary’s aid. It will be a long, ugly and often dirty campaign - just what you’d expect with Hillary in the race. And Clinton, Inc. is good at that kind of politicking.

Add that to a less than smooth personal life and you give the media all the fodder they need to minimize the scandal effect on Hillary. That’s one reason why I once posted that Romney may have the best chance among the top tier of Republican challengers of beating Hillary in 2008.

–The Heretik has a post with his usually superb original graphic about Mitt Romney blasting Giuliani for ethics.

–All Spin Zone:

Rudy defends himself by saying it was a poor choice. And since he is bringing up the issue of having made so many decisions as Mayor of New York (when he wasn’t part timing all those other roles), mightn’t now be a good time for the media to start questioning his judgment?