Poll: Hillary Would Easily Beat Giuliani Amid GOP Popularity Nosedive
October 31st, 2007 by JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief
A new poll that suggests that New York Senator Hillary Clinton — now under fire in what has been long predicted would happen to her if she pulled way out ahead — would easily defeat former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani for President if the race was held today.
And the GOP in in exceedingly bad shape in the way it is viewed by many Americans, the poll finds. The Politico reports:
One year before voters go to the polls to select the next president, the Republican Party is as weak as it has been in a generation, a detailed new poll suggests.
That in itself is bad news for the GOP. How can it be overcome? If the approach is going to be yet another negative campaign (”Vote for us because we don’t smell as bad as the Democrats”), that might not be enough this time. And the specifics?
In a hypothetical match-up between Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani, bloc after bloc of traditionally Republican voters break for Clinton:
She wins the South.
She polls evenly with voters who attend church at least once a week.
She splits families with a household income above $100,000.
She loses rural voters and men — but only by a narrow margin.
All are constituencies Republicans have dominated for decades; George W. Bush won each by double-digit margins.
The findings from The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press remain preliminary, considering even the primaries are still two months off.
But Pew questioned an unusually large number of voters to try to paint the most accurate picture possible of where the presidential contest stands today.
Should the race continue down its current trajectory, the poll finds Clinton defeating Giuliani by eight percentage points.
Other recent polls, however, have placed Giuliani ahead of Clinton in a head-to-head race. But those polls predict Clinton would beat Fred Thompson, John McCain or Mitt Romney.
Of course the issue that some have predicted for months would be the GOP’s ace-in-the-hole is….immigration. Although there is a great divide on issues such as guest workers, etc. the issue that has come to the forefront of immigration issue is now whether illegal immigrants should be allowed official drivers licenses. That is far more certain to work to the GOP’s advantage as a “wedge issue” than the more problematic issue of immigration in general. And the driver’s license issue has already become a hot campaign issue.
Prediction: it will NOT be one that will work to Ms. Clinton’s advantage or to the advantage of Democrats in other races on the ticket on Election Day. But would even that be enough to negate growing dissatisfaction with the elite that now runs the Republican Party, the war and other issues?
On the other hand, The Politico’s piece points out its way too early (few expect Clinton would win the south) and many things could change in tactical and strategical terms.
But what seems unlikely to change is the downswing in Republican Party and Bush administration support:
Republicans, however, have become “increasingly negative,†as Pew puts it, about their party.
And they are falling behind in the party loyalty stakes, Pew interviews of some 20,000 Americans this year have found.
About a third of voters call themselves Democrats and a quarter call themselves Republicans — but when independents’ leanings are added to the mix, roughly half of Americans lean Democratic and only 36 percent lean Republican.
That Democratic advantage in party identity is larger than at any time since tracking began in 1990.
Bush’s poor approval ratings are a factor.
His approval rating has dropped from around 50 percent in October 2003 to about 30 percent today.
That is roughly equal to Jimmy Carter’s ratings at the low point of the 1979 energy crisis and Richard Nixon’s in the worst days of Watergate.
Additionally, the unpopular war in Iraq, the lack of a clear Republican front-runner and dismay among some conservatives about the authenticity of leading GOP candidates all play a role in the Democrats’ powerfully fortified position today.
There is also the Bush/GOP fatigue factor. Americans may simply feel it is time for a change — not just of personnel, but of the party administering the personnel.
This entry was posted on Wednesday, October 31st, 2007 at 10:40 pm and is filed under Hillary Clinton, Rudy Giuliani, Republicans, Democrats, 2008 Elections, Politics. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
