It has been clear for several months now that Arizona Senator John McCain, chief engineer of 2000’s media-praised “Straight Talk Express,” was walking a shaky tightrope in his quest for the Republican nomination — trying to hold independent voters who supported him in 2000 and ingratiate himself with Republican party’s conservative base and the GOP establishment that defeated him.

And it has also been clear that McCain fell off the tightrope, as his polls began to go south almost as quickly as President George Bush’s due to the twin issues of the Iraq war and his advocacy of a Senator Ted Kennedy-supported immigration reform plan.

Now it’s being openly asked: will McCain have to drop out of the race due to funding problems and nosediving polls? The Sunday Times’ Sara Baxter thinks so:

THE former presidential front-runner, John McCain, may drop out of the 2008 race by September if his fundraising dries up and his poll ratings continue to drop, according to Republican insiders.

The speculation, vigorously denied by McCain’s camp, is sweeping Republican circles after a disastrous few weeks in which the principled Arizona senator has clashed with the party’s conservative base on immigration and also alienated independent voters by backing President George W Bush’s troop surge in Iraq.

Randy Pullen, chairman of the Arizona Republican party, said: “He’s a battler, so I’d expect him to carry on, but everyone is waiting to see what his new fundraising totals are. That’s pretty critical. If he doesn’t have the money, he won’t be able to run.”

Just about a year ago, McCain was seen as the potential front runner for the GOP nomination. And he seemed to have pulled off a delicate act: keeping some independent and moderate voter support, while becoming what was widely perceived as the then-front runner and Republican’s establishment candidate.

Since then, a lot of folks have started to abandon ship. Why?

Dan Schnur, McCain’s communications director during the 2000 presidential campaign, said it was “possible” that he could drop out: “There are all sorts of challenges McCain is facing, from fundraising to Fred Thompson and the Iraq war, but the biggest single boulder in his path is the immigration issue.”

One veteran Republican consultant put the odds of McCain remaining in the race beyond the autumn at 3-1 against. “He’ll be gone by September,” predicted Tom Edmonds, who is not affiliated with any campaign.

“The wheels are coming off his wagon and it’s hard to see how he can recover. He won’t be able to pay all the good talent he has hired and they’ll want to drift away from a loser.”

Perhaps it’s too early to write the political obituary of John McCain. Could he still get the nomination? Anything is possible - but it’s highly unlikely.

And if he does fizzle as a candidate here are a few things to point to:

(1) His status as a straight shooter and a straight talker were undermined by his efforts to appeal to the conservative GOPers who had successfully sandbagged his 2000 run. It’s hard to seem like a campaign finance reformer when there are allegations that scores of lobbyists are on your staff. Too much video and audio remains of former positions to jettison them sharply, even if you explain the change with a smile. It never works (unless you’re Mitt Romney). McCain had to “finesse” many of the statements that sparked his 2000 popularity.

(2) One reason he got independent voters support in 2000 was because he seemed to be willing to take on social conservatives, and the religious right in particular. His efforts to inch back into their good graces (a) didn’t totally win over those voters (b) lost him support among many independent, moderate and Democratic voters who perceived him the way poll-popular Arnold Schwarzenegger is now being perceived in California (as someone who perhaps doesn’t fit into either party classification).

(3) He linked his fate to that of President George W. Bush on the Iraq War, not only leaving little distance but at times advocating a stronger stance. Some will ultimately view this as a profile in courage. But by doing so he turned off many voters who above all want a change in Iraq policy, not a continuation of the Bush policy.

(4) He stopped being college campus cool. It’s hard to be if you’re not just supporting the Iraq war but seek a harder line. The incredible buzz and wildly enthusiastic reaction among young people, which got McCain LOTS of ink and air time, was greatly decreased. The media imagery this time was just not there.

(5) Immigration. If you note, his real political belly flop in the polls came when he worked with Kennedy on immigration reform and advocated not just border enforcement but an adjustment of the status of many of the many illegal immigrants already here. This was the last straw for many Republican voters who felt they simply could not trust McCain. Immigration reform is a highly emotional issue in the Republican base and has led to Bush’s poll numbers going down as well.

So McCain fell off the tightrope and wound up not being trusted by devout Republicans, being seen as Bush III by many Democrats, and not being trusted by many independent voters.

Yet another factor could the be the “fire in the belly” factor. McCain has run a spirited campaign but some of his debate appearances were deadly. It’s hard to conclude after Ronald Reagan that Americans would vote down a candidate just because of his age but he has some problems when being compared to other candidates.

Enter actor Fred Thompson, a blank slate on which many Republicans are drawing their hopes about what he will be and what he is. Thompson is as media-savvy as McCain — only more so. He’s younger. And while many Democrats and independents may not find Thompson their cup of tea, he isn’t distrusted the way McCain has become.

Perhaps McCain’s transformational moment in perceptions came during that 2004 campaign stop where he was campaigning for Bush and fell into Bush’s arms and hugged him. It did to McCain’s image what that (in)famous photo of Sammy Davis, Jr. hugging President Richard Nixon did. It was not a plus, and has been shown (mockingly) on cable and late night comedy shows ever since.

The Bush hug started the steady exit of support from independent and Democratic ranks. And then came immigration reform, seeking better ties to the religious right, and staunch support for Iraq — and the Straight Talk Express was derailed as tracks from the left and right split apart.

And the middle scattered in the turbulent political breeze….

SOME OTHER VIEWS:
–Ed Morrisey says it’s too soon to totally count him out and that he isn’t the kind of person to quit early.

–Political scientist Steven Taylor believes McCain may have stumbled but that Giuliani’s stumbles may be on the horizon…and McCain could still “surge” at the end.

–Sister Toldjah also contends McCain won’t drop out early.

–Political expert Stuart Rothenberg has some advice for McCain:

Here’s a bit of unsolicited advice for Sen. John McCain’s presidential campaign (which has plenty of smart people and doesn’t need my advice): Try to get back to McCain’s story.

He says people shouldn’t write off McCain yet — noting how many experts wrote off John Kerry early on his race for the 2004 Democratic Presidential nomination.

As I watched McCain in Iowa and New Hampshire eight years ago, I was struck by how many veterans were in his audiences, and how real people talked and related to him. They saw him as a true hero. Given the recent media coverage of Paris Hilton and the late Anna Nicole Smith, plenty of Americans might well like to hear about a true hero.

Whatever Rudy Giuliani’s, Mitt Romney’s and Fred Thompson’s strength and appeal — and each certainly has some — McCain stands head and shoulders above them in terms of service to country and personal story….

…McCain may not be able to reinject his personal story of heroism and service into the national media coverage of his campaign or excite people the way he once did. His military record may be old news to too many people. But his campaign needs to find a way to make John McCain more than just a Washington, D.C., insider and Senator, and his personal story and heroism should be more of an asset now than it is.

Read his entire column.