In the wonderful musical “Annie'” the lyrics to the song “Tomorrow” go like like this:
The sun’ll come out
Tomorrow
Bet your bottom dollar
That tomorrow
There’ll be sun!Just thinkin’ about
Tomorrow
Clears away the cobwebs,
And the sorrow
‘Til there’s none!
But in the case of aspiriing 2008 Republican Presidential candidate former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, some gathering storm clouds — or cobwebs — may be now accumulating, if news reports are any indication. Just note:
(1) Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s emergence as a possible third party candidate (the political jury is out as to whether Bloomberg is seriously thinking of running or merely doing all the right moves to increase his national political clout) is casting a harsher light on Giuliani, the Washington Post reports.
As the political world waits to see whether Bloomberg’s switch last month from Republican to independent means that he and his vast fortune will enter the 2008 presidential race, one result of his dalliance with running is already becoming clear: Simply having him in the picture calls into question some of the assumptions underlying Giuliani’s appeal.
Giuliani is selling himself as a strong leader who achieved the impossible in bringing an ungovernable New York under control, even if it required some bruising confrontations along the way. But Bloomberg, his admirers say, has shown that the city of 8 million can be run successfully in a far more understated fashion — that a mayor can reduce crime without cultivating a sheriff’s swagger and antagonizing minorities, protect against terrorism without overly fixating on security, and tackle deeply rooted urban problems without getting into public spats with top appointees.
“Bloomberg shows it’s possible to manage New York without offending people,” said Peter Kostmayer, a former Democratic congressman who is president of Citizens for New York City, a nonprofit group. “His entrance would be a complete disaster for Giuliani, because then you’re able to compare. You have one mayor who was successful and turned off lots of people and one who was successful and has turned on lots of people. ”
The former mayor’s defenders counter that Giuliani took office at a time when runaway crime and an unaccountable bureaucracy demanded a reformer’s lash, and that it is only because he pacified the city that Bloomberg has been able to govern as a more conciliatory technocrat.
Fair enough, but there could be a subliminal problem for Giuliani if Bloomberg indeed throws his hat and a few of his million dollars into the ring:
Giuliani has been billing himself as “America’s mayor.” But suddenly there will be another high profile mayor in the race. And a mayor from New York, to boot.
Moreover, as Giuliani makes controversial comments suggesting Democrats are soft on terrorism, he is undermining his credibility among Democrats and some independent voters that he is a unifying national force and really “America’s” mayor.
Is he going to run as America’s Mayor (which would assume of Democrats, too) or will it in effect be as the Republican Party’s base’s mayor?
Will he be able retain the incredible good will and near icon status that he achieved on that horrible day in American history or will it evaporate as he moves towards into required partisan campaign mode? (If he’s a Republican he will HAVE to run against Democrats which will require some tough partisan talk if he wants to win the election).
And there’s a lot more:
(2) Giuliani watchers are wondering if he’s going to overplay his 911 card, the Boston Globe reports:
For Giuliani, the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, and his response to them have become his strongest campaign pitch, as the GOP presidential candidate reminds voters again and again of the role he played when terrorists crashed two airliners into the World Trade Center towers, killing nearly 3,000 people.
It is a message that appears to be resonating among Republicans. They have put the blunt-speaking former mayor at the top of a crowded GOP field in most polls, and his campaign said Tuesday that he raised more money in the second quarter than any other Republican candidate.
Political analysts say Giuliani’s pitch is a powerful message to an electorate worried about another assault on US soil, especially after the recent attacks in Britain.
At the same time, many of these analysts question whether Giuliani can ride the anti terror train all the way to the White House. They say Giuliani risks being tagged as a single-issue candidate for his Sept. 11 performance just when his handling of the attack and its aftermath is drawing increasing criticism from his home city of New York.
“He really defined leadership in the aftermath of 9/11, and that is something that is uniquely his own,” said John Zogby , an independent pollster based in upstate New York. “But he does need a second act, possibly even a third act. This is where we get into uncharted waters.”
This can indeed prove to be a double-edged sword:
–Giuliani still has an almost mythical, larger-than-life image among many Americans because he was out there on 911 for a period when President George Bush and other government officials had seemingly vanished. (Even after President Ronald Reagan was shot, a hyperactive Secretary of State Al Haig insisted “I am in control” at the White House).
–But George Bush’s constant talk about 911 has wore thin for many Democrats and independent voters. Giuliani risks veering into the same territory. Americans know about his role in 911. Giuliani risks as coming across as someone who is too eager to claim credit for political reasons. Can he find the right balance?
(3) A new Quinnipiac University poll shows Bloomberg would hurt Giuliani in New Jersey, the AP reports.
THE RACE: Support for former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Sen. Hillary Clinton in a theoretical general election matchup in New Jersey, with and without an independent candidacy by New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg.
THE NUMBERS – WITHOUT BLOOMBERG
Rudy Giuliani, 47 percent
Hillary Clinton, 44 percent
THE NUMBERS – WITH BLOOMBERG
Rudy Giuliani, 36 percent
Hillary Clinton, 36 percent
Michael Bloomberg, 18 percent
OF INTEREST:
If Giuliani were to become the GOP nominee for president, he might look to New Jersey as a place to pick up electoral votes that have gone to Democrats in recent elections. A Bloomberg candidacy, however, might siphon off more support from Giuliani than Clinton. New Jersey hasn’t supported a Republican for president since 1988. But the new poll has 61 percent of the state’s voters holding a favorable view of Giuliani, higher than any other presidential contender.
WARNING: Keep in mind that political talking heads are not in agreement about whether Bloomberg will indeed run or not.
Meanwhile, the Giuliani campaign has been noting its strong second quarter fund-raising take. The campaign has also stressed its belief that he can be highly competitive in a general election.
On the other hand, not all of Giuliani’s debate performances have been stellar (but then, neither have any of the other candidates’). And he remains distrusted by many conservatives — but many of them would rather trust their lives with Giuliani than ever vote for Arizona Senator John McCain after McCain’s stance on immigration reform.
And all of THIS may soon change: enter former Senator Fred Thompson….stage right…
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.