The Political Quote of the Day comes from Peggy, who in a Wall Street Journal column (that should be read in full) wonders whether what’s shaping up for Presidential election 2008 is Democratic Senator Barack Obama as losing 1948 overconfident Republican Presidential candidate Thomas E. Dewey, Republican Senator John McCain as underdog-winner Democratic Senator and the bulk of voters as 1968 winning Republican Richard Nixon’s “silent majority:
Is Mr. Obama’s self-conception in line with his gifts, depth, wisdom and character? That’s the big question, I suspect, on a number of minds.
As for Mr. McCain, I think he had the best moment of the month this week at the big motorcycle convention in Sturgis, S.D., when he was greeted with that mighty roar. And his great line: “As you may know, not long ago a couple hundred thousand Berliners made a lot of noise for my opponent. I’ll take the roar of 50,000 Harleys any day.” Oh, that was good.
There’s a thing that’s out there and it’s big, and latent, and somehow always taken into account and always ignored, and political professionals always assume they understand it. It has been called many things the past 50 years, “the silent center,” “the silent majority,” “the coalition,” “the base.” The idea of it has evolved as its composition has evolved, but the fact that it’s big, and relatively silent, and somehow always latent, maintains. And watching that McCain event—vroom vroom—one got the sense it is perhaps beginning to pay attention to the campaign. I see it as the old America, and if and when it reasserts itself, the campaign will shift indeed, and in ways you can even see from 10,000 feet.
Some initial reaction to this:
1. It is now become a truly tiresome cliche that every time a candidate who has been perceived or is behind in polls or early votes and then seems to gather strength it’s suggested that we are seeing a repeat of 1948. It’s always possible but the polity, economic conditions, country’s polarization hubris and countless other factors make the context of the vote far different. Still, 1948 was a case of overconfidence versus buoyant happy-warrior fighting. Who will emerge as the campaign’s true happy warrior? Who will emerge as the one who was overconfident? And will whoever wins have more than 50 + 1 in terms of a governing coalition? Remember: Truman’s 1948 victory did not exactly usher in an era of good partisan feeling. Will whoever wins simply sit in the White House as the polarization wars continue? Or will their campaign allow consensus building?
2. What has indeed changed is the “given” that it’s the Democrats’ year for the White House.
Perhaps it is a “given” to pundits, but the voters so far do not seem to agree. The Demmies will have to fight for it — and fight smart and hard.
3. I noted in a post earlier this McCain quote. It was definitely home run. And you realized: if McCain can keep recapturing that moment and the way he said it — be sure footed, score his points but without all the silliness, bitterness and talk-show or blog-troll-like polemics — he will have a better chance in peeling off some voters without turning off others who might have been warily considering him.
4. You still get the feeling that the Obama campaign’s strategists are being outperformed by McCain’s. Is this because the Clintons are not on board and the Democrats are missing part of the party’s machinery that should be involved in all phases of the campaign? In recent weeks, you also get a feeling that Obama can’t keep up with McCain’s energy and growing pizazz on the stump and in sound bites. Obama will reportedly have a big buy of commercials on the Olymics.
McCain has to keep his base but continue to emit the vibes that he is still the 2000 McCain who many felt was a Maverick. Obama has to look serious and Presidential but he needs to recapture some of the charisma that was so evident in the primaries that helped him jump to the head of the Democratic pack. Is he still being compared to JFK or has that changed in recent weeks?
If you look at the sound bites on all the cable networks and broadcast TV, Obama’s arguments and counter arguments are quite good but he needs to recapture The “WOW!” Factor. Is all of this overconfidence — or just the need to put his campaign operation and his own performances in terms of content and style up a notch more?
A NOTE ON SOUND BITES: It isn’t oversimplification to say that sound bites increasingly matter. Why? It could be argued that only X people watch a given show. But we are now in an era where daily newspapers are closing, shrinking, or becoming bland and/or not even trying to compete with broadcast or the Internet anymore. Many young people don’t read newspapers but watch cable news from time to time. Meanwhile, print media and Internet media all monitor news and programs dealing with politics. The influence of these images matter. News line producers must pick and choose what they broadcast. Which then has great..and growing… influence.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.