This addition of the “Rattling of the Cages” focuses on new developments in major House, Senate, and Gubernatorial races.
One bipartisan occurrence is past& current members of Congress ruling out Senate bids.
In the past 10 days, five current or past House members, three Republicans and two Democrats, took their names out of races for the Senate. None were particular surprises but a handful came as disappointments to their respective parties.
Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin’s decision to take a pass at Tim Johnson’s seat may have the most far-reaching consequences, and it’s not favorable for the Democrats.
The day after Mother’s Day, Herseth-Sandlin,who has a 4 year old son, revealed her decision. not to take plunge no surprise but, coming after Johnson’s son Brandon had also decided to take a pass, probably means the seat is off the table. Absent a new name coning forward,ex-Daschle aide and two time Congressional candidate Rick Weiland is looking like the Dem. nominee.He has run spirited races for Congress in the past (as far back as 1996 against John Thune), but lost by wide margins. Given South Dakota’s Republican proclivity, it doesn’t seem like next time will be different.
And with that, did Mike Rounds go from nominal favorite to prohibitive favorite for winning the seat. Ask Kristi Noem? If she runs,she’s only force that could stop him. But that would be in a primary and, despite conservative unease over Rounds over spending issues, whether she’ll take the plunge is still uncertain. A Noem-Weiland race would be closer but it’s hard to see how Noem,who already holds the state’s at large House seat, wouldn’t be favored.
John Barrow was only thought about a 50-50 chance to seek the Senate seat. Barrow may still have a tough time holding his seat, particularly if the climate against Democrats degenerates in the deep south. But he has shown he knows how to appeal to heavily Republican electorates before and has to be considered a favorite even if things go way south for the party.
In the Senate race, the Democrats plan “b”, and most likely “c” and “d” is Michelle Nunn, daughter of the former Senator. Democrats are banking on Paul Broun winning the nomination, but the odds of that happening, particularly in a near certain runoff, are dim, though not non-existent.
Which brings us to a Republican demurral. When conservatives were looking for a challenger to Saxby Chambliss, Tom Price had been seen as nearly a sure-hing. But Chambliss got out and price seemed to get cold-feet. Three Georgia Republican colleagues got in, but Price became increasingly skeptical. All knew that he would not run if Karen Handel sought the seat. Handel was nearly the GOP nominee for Governor (which means, given Deal’s desultory campaign in the fall, she would have been elected). Handel appears to have waited for Price but, with his decision made, seems on the verge of announcing. I’d still say the odds favor Kingston but, with the primary more than a year out, the only thing certain is that everything is far from certain.
The others who have bowed out are Steve King and Erik Paulsen in Iowa and Minnesota. Unless Republicans can convince Tom Latham to reverse himself (which he may indeed be considering but is thought of as highly unlikely), the party will likely nominate candidates that are far to the right of the “Hawkeye State” electorate.
Secretary of State Matt Schultz is a King protege and ex-State Rep. Matt Whittaker said named Rand Paul and Ted Cruz as his Senate role models. Some Republicans want to recruit State Senator Joni Ernst to run, and she has impressive military credentials. But in a primary electorate which finds the Religious Right” dominating, she may be uphill.
Finally, Paulsen finally made it official, as he had all but said he wouldn’t run but left wiggle room. The Republicans seem to be left with little-known state legislators to take on Al Franken.
Moving to House races, tremendous, albeit far from final clarity was made in Illinois-13, which after California-31 (Gary Miller), and Colorado-6 (Mike Coffman), beating Rodney Davis appears to be the Democrats most coveted opportunity.
The race was the closest in the nation the Democrats lost in 2012, decided by just 1,002 votes. Emergency room physician David Gill had won the primary in an upset and was never a favorite. He wanted to run again. But Democrats successfully lured Judge Ann Callis to resign her post to seek the job. So what is the local party to do? Find an opening in state government for Gill. Pat Quinn named him assistant director of the Illinois Department of Public Health.
Callis, who just prior had announced her resignation from the bench, made her candidacy official that day. She will still face —–, and, in a primary electorate that leans left, could do quite well. Much will depend on whether Callis’ campaign skills are better than the man Gill upset last year. Still, Gill’s placement isn’t bad news for Democrats. In a district Obama captured 54% in 2008 but lost last year, the party will need all the breaks it can get to beat Davis.
Further north in Illinois , ex-Congressman Bob Dold, who was nudged out of office last year when his district was redrawn to become far more Democratic, will run again. Dold lost b just 3,000 votes to political neophyte Brad Schneider, a strong showing considering Obama was sweeping the district. He produced a moderate record. Dold is hoping lower turn-out for amid-term will allow him to reverse his fortune last year. But Schneider will have the benefits, however short, of incumbency and can’t be counted out. But he still faces challenges. This could be as hotly contested as last time, and potentially, a toss-up to the end.
Among other rematches, the opponents of Mike McIntyre and Jim Matheson, who last year lost the two closest races in the nation (685 and 768 votes respectively), will try again. On one hand, it’s hard to see how their odds would improve. In North Carolina-7, David Rouzer admitted he didn’t start early enough last time. But he was running against a Democrat who had much hostile territory added during the remap and still lost as Romney was smashing in the district. True, Rouzer doesn’t have much to gain by the numbers but neither does McIntyre. And it’s a good bet that with his conservative bent an excellent retail politicking, he will have wooed at least the number of votes next time. On the other hand, if Benghazi and IRSgate are issues, or if it’s a vote against the President’s party, that would begin here.
Mia Love would seem to be in an even worse position in Utah-4. She had everything going for her last time, not the least of which was also a new, favorable district. But Romney, who had given Love a prime speaking spot at the GOP convention, was taking 67% and she still lost. Even Republicans were critical of her campaign.
But the truth is, Matheson is an indefatigable campaigner and it doesn’t hurt that his father was a popular, Democratic Governor 30 years ago. Eventually, Matheson’s luck may run out but it probably won’t be to Love. In the words of Lena Horne, she may be in “the
wrong time and the wrong place / though your face is charming, it’s the wrong face.”
As we saw last year, it’s not uncommon for at least one rematch to land in the challengers lap (Chandler lost to Barr the second time and even going back to 1998, Joe Hoeffel dethroned Jon Fox, who had beaten him by 84 votes in 1996). Stranger things my have happened but for now, I’d bet on the incumbents.
Finally, the worst kept secret in Washington was that Joe Sestak was going to run for something. The question was which one? Sestak seemed to put speculation to rest about which office he’d seek. He announced the formation of an exploratory committee to challenge Pat Toomey, who beat him just 51-49% in 2010. The move is curious, as Toomey has been gaining in approvals following his quest for background check legislation. But Sestak knows that, and he obviously wants to show people he’s serious about a Senate run.
Sestak’s move leaves Alyson Shwartz clearly in the driver’s seat for the battle to take on Tom Corbett (second only to Rick Scott in terms of Gubernatorial vulnerabilities), as she will be favored against Treasurer Rob McCord.