Historic Tidbit: A young boy intrigued Herbert Hoover, by then an ex-President, with a request for three autographs. Hoover inquired as to why, to which the boy replied, “it takes two of your autographs to get one of Babe Ruth’s.”
Though it is currently an off-year for most elections (New Jersey and Virginia exempt), developments in the many races for 2014 don’t seem to take a break. ,Therefore, I will be doing short, periodic updates on the races (marquee and obscure) as they occur. I’ll call this column, “Poli-Takes: The Rattling of the Cages.”
Kentucky Senate
The first cage to rattle is more like an earthquake. And in that case, it may mean that the biggest recruiting news for Senate Democrats may not be who does run, but who doesn’t.
That said, Ashley Judd took herself out of the Kentucky Senate.race today. Liberals are no doubt disappointed by Judd’s decision but all other Democrats are likely ecstatic. And in the “Bluegrass State,” the everyone else far outnumber the liberals. Judd likely saw the handwriting on the wall. Judd was not meant to be an Al Franken, as Minnesota is definitely not Kentucky.
Polls showed that while Judd dominated in name recognition, she was hindered by her liberal views (particularly on coal) and a long absence from Kentucky, And with McConnell the Democrats top target, many elder statesman of the party (including Bill Clinton) had made clear that Judd was not the one to carry their banner. That appears to be meant for Secretary of StateAllison Lundergan-Grimes.
Is Judd’s departure fait accompli for Lundergan-Grimes? It sure seems that way. Hours after Judd bowed out, she announced formation of an exploratory committee.
South Carolina-1
The long-awaited primary to succeed newly appointed Senator Tim Scott came last week. As expected by most (I was not sure), Mark Sanford came in first with 37%. That meant that while Sanford may not have been hiking the Appalachian Trail, Republican voters gave him permission to at least continue on the campaign trail.
Who Sanford would face was a mystery until well after polls closed but attorney Curtis Bostic ultimately edged out State Senator Larry Grooms, who had support from members of the South Carolina delegation, by fewer than 500 votes. With a two week gap between primary day and the runoff, Sanford leads the unknown Bostic in polls, but as Sanford will tell it, that can be misleading here.
Sanford was an unknown, staunch conservative when he finished second in the 1994 primary, yet upset ex-GOP Chair Van Hipp 52-48%. Ditto for Henry Brown, Sanford’s successor who beat establishment backed Buck Limehouse (the fathe of one of the candidates who lost last week’s primary with 55%. So anything’s possible.
One strategist said forgiveness As Stephanie Colbert-Busch waits in the wings, it’s not clear who she’d rather face. In a 58% Romney district, she’d need all the help she can get. Polls show Bostic performing slightly better against Colbert-Busch than Sanford but not by much. Bostic, a religious conservative, has won support from Rick Santorum. But as one “Palmetto State” Republican told “Roll Call,” This is a district that’s more Club for Growth than Focus on the Family.” But even in Sanford prevails in he runoff, it’ll be close, a sign that swing voters may not be ready to move on. And that’s music to the ears of Colbert-Busch.
Illinois-Governor
Illinois has among the earliest filing deadlines in the nation, so, expect to see announcements from would be candidates soon. For Democrats, that means wooing Attorney General Lisa Madigan into the Governor’s race. And in order to make that happen, incumbent Pat Quinn, a fellow Democrat, with under-water approvals, may’ve received an ever so-slight diss from the state’s senior Senator Richard Durbin and his own departing Lieutenant Governor, Shelia Simon.
Durbin said “Madigan would clear the (primary) field” and in an ever-so-slight diss at Quinn, said he “hasn’t asked for my endorsement and I don’t anticipate giving it.” Durbin and Quinn were opponents in 1996 in the Senate primary for Paul Simon’s seat but appear to have worked harmoniously since. Speaking of Simon, Shelia is his daughter and when asked by Capitol Fax Blog recently recently if she’d back her former ticket-mate, she replied, “Way too early to say. We don’t even know who’s running for governor. He is just what we needed; totally honest. This is a really challenging time for our state. Anyone who’s involved in government is not going to be particularly popular.”
Illinois Congressional Races
Republicans are likely to be on offensive in House races after losing five seats last year in the only true gerrymander the Democrats controlled. They are already trying to recruit ex-Congressmen Bob Dold and Bobby Schilling. No indications yet whether either will run, but Dold may be more enthusiastic (Schilling’s daughter said following his concession that “she finally has her daddy back”).”
Dold, who fell 3,500 votes shy of holding his seat even with Obama dominating the district, would be a major threat to Brad Schneider. Dold has skills, which even for a year like 2010, is how he won his Democratic heavy seat in the first place. The question is how much incumbency, particularly for a novice like Schneider. And in a suburban district, how will national issues (gun control, etc), play out.
Further west in Moline, Schilling would be a clear underdog to Cheri Bustos. The area has a strong union presence and Bustos has won raves by joining the “No labels” group. Schilling put his heart into the district during his term (even Democrats called him a conscience kind of guy), but in a district that gave Obama 57%, Bustos is likely safe.
The one seat Democrats failed to rest from the GOP may also see a rematch. It came in Illinois-13, where, to the surprise of many, physician David Gill failed to beat ex-John Shimkus Chief of Staff Rodney Davis (in a twist of irony, Davis’ 1,002 vote margin was eerily similar to the 1,200 vote margin that Shimkus came from behind to win his first race).
Gill has talked of trying again but national Democrats are cool to the idea, sensing the need for a stronger candidate. Gill lost three previous bids to incumbent Tim Johnson, though in fairness, he was viewed as a sacrificial lamb. Remember, Gill upset a more favored Democrat in the primary. The district will be hard fought, but Obama did not do as well this time as 2008. His 54% win in 2008 turned into a narrow loss last year.
Were I to call it, I’d say all three freshman return.
California Congressional Races
Despite a remap put forth by an independent commission that saw Democrats gain four House seats, the party still believes the road to winning the House majority runs through the “Golden State.” Indeed, they believe as many as three additional Republican held seats could be takeovers with the right candidates and turnout scenarios.
One of those seats is held by Gary Miller, who political analysts and privately many Republicans believes was fortunate to get an additional two year lease in Congress. His redrawn district gave Obama 57% and Miller survived because the favored Democratic candidate, Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar, failed to qualify for the general election. Aguuilar is all but certain to try again and Miller’s voting record seems to suggest that even he knows his contract was given a 2 year extension.
The other two seats, both in the Central Valley, will be tougher. Though the Valley’s Republican shows signs of being reversed, turnout even in Presidential years make it tough. Last year, astronaut Jeff Hernandez gave freshman Republican Jeff Denham a run for his money. Denham is a stellar fundraiser (he was criticized for holding an expensive fundraiser with singer LeAnn Rimes) but even Republicans admitted he got complacent following a more competitive remap. Some were predicting an upset on Election Day but Denham squeaked by 52-48%.
Hernandez has made no secret of the fact that he’d like to try again but readily acknowledged his conundrum. Turnout works more to the Democrats advantage in Presidential years. So does he risk another loss, or will he stick it out until 2016. Democrats don’t want to let Denham off the hook, and in a district where Obama’s margin actually ticked up a half a percent, it’s not hard to see why.
Finally, turnout clearly factored into the Democrats loss of California-21 but candidate quality did as well. And that will be the toughest to regain.
In a district that gave Obama 54%, Democrats initially hoped to lure ex-Speaker Dean Florez. That failed but they succeeded in getting Michael Rubio, but he dropped out to spend time with his ill son (he has since resigned his Senate seat). The Democrats thought they cleared the field for Blong Xiong, a Fresno Council member who appealed to the district’s sizable Asian community was upset by the nomination by John Hernandez. But with a weak organization and little support from the national party, Hernandez lost to a young, appealing State Senator named David Valadao by 14%. Given Valadao’s margin, he may’ve prevailed anyway but lacking a credible nominee didn’t help. And this district has among the lowest turnout in the nation. Barring a change, Democrats may have to wait until 2016 at the earliest for serious hopes at seizing this one.
Democrats will have to protect at least five of their own, with John Garamendi being the only non-freshman who could have a serious threat on his hand, though even without a Presidential race atop the ticket, his long-time presence on the statewide scene makes him favored.
Colorado-3
If Democrats are to have a chance to even get close to retaking the House, they’ll have to retake seats like this. On paper, it’s achievable. John Salazar held it as recently as 2010 and Republican incumbent Scott Tipton suffered from early missteps. But in 2012, highly touted Democratic recruit Sal Pace, the Colorado House Speaker, suffered a 12% defeat. True, his campaign was a disappointment, but a gap that size was a little bigger than it should’ve been for a very light red district (Obama took 46%)
This time around, Democrats are trying to recruit Lieutenant Governor Joe Garcia and State Senator Gail Schwartz. Garcia gained exposure as being the leading candidate to become Secretary of Labor until Obama ultimately settled on Thomas Perez. But as a statewide official in a district with a growing Hispanic population (Pueblo is in this district), Garcia would have heft as a Congressional candidate. But it remains to be seen whether he’d abandon his post as Gov. Hickenlooper’s running mate (and possible front-runner status for the Governorship in 2018) to make an iffy bid. Schwartz is her party’s majority whip in the Senate, and is cited for strong fundraising skills. And National Journal credits her survival in 2010 as giving her an ability to understand swing districts.
Much fun awaits. In the words of Chicago, this is “only the beginning.”
Democrat Republican graphic via shutterstock.com