The assassination by Islamist Taliban zealots of a leading candidate today for Pakistan’s May 11 elections is a foretaste of how the extremists plan to make the polls safe for their sympathizers and partners while terrorizing the moderate political parties. It is like a pilot run of how their Afghan allies might deal with elections in Afghanistan after US withdrawal in 2014.
News reports said gunmen on a motorcycle shot to death Fakhrul Islam, a candidate from Hyderabad. Another moderate politician Arbab Ayub Jan suffered a bomb attack near Peshawar but escaped death.
For the first time in Pakistani history, a civilian parliament elected in 2008 has survived its full term without being overthrown by the army. Three moderate Muslim parties formed the coalition: the MQM, the Pakistan People’s Party and the Awami National Party. All three are fielding candidates for the May 11 elections, which will choose a national government and governments for the four provinces that make up the country.
But the Pakistani Taliban, who are fighting alongside the Afghan Taliban against the US/NATO coalition, have branded the three moderate Muslim parties as “secular infidels”. They promised a few days before the armed attacks to assassinate both national and provincial candidates from the “secular” parties and disrupt their rallies.
Their goals are to prevent candidates from campaigning while intimidating voters to discourage attendance at rallies. In effect, the extremist militants are giving themselves a veto over who stands for elections and where. This is ominous because Pakistani Taliban are close to al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban, although they operate separately within Pakistan.
The forthcoming elections are history making for the region because for the first time an elected civilian government would succeed one that completed its full 5-year term. In the past, civilian governments in Pakistan were at the mercy of army generals and not one made it through a full term between 1948 and 2008.
Now, the army is cooperating with the civilians and seems ready to step aside permanently from political power. But the Taliban have become a bloody enemy of moderate Muslim politicians and their ambition and cruelty are far worse than the army’s past.
Normally, the police and army are responsible for providing safety for the elections process but they have not had much luck in stopping the attacks. Some moderate politicians and other critics allege that many in the police and army, including the secret services, sympathize with extremists and do not want to act too forcefully against them. Senior army leaders strongly deny this and point to the thousands of casualties their men have suffered in over a decade of trying unsuccessfully to defeat the Pakistani Taliban.
The signals for Afghanistan’s elections in 2014 will not be encouraging if the Taliban succeed in preventing sufficient turnout for the Pakistani elections or disrupting canvassing by moderate candidates. That would leave the field open for their extremist allies to obtain political power through the ballot box and subvert Pakistan’s fragile democracy. Election results depend on turnout and victory for extremists is certain if their opponents are too fearful to enter polling booths. Only the army can protect them and that protection is not certain.
Their success would also provide knowhow for the Afghan Taliban to bring victory for their allies through elections after the US withdraw. That might provide space for a reentry of Al Qaeda in Afghanistan defeating America’s sacrifice of blood and treasure. It could also see the rise of an alliance of extremist governments in Afghanistan and Pakistan, a nuclear armed and militarist state with heavy conventional weapons, a modern air force and navy, and thousands of missiles. Its armory is far superior to that of Syria, Iraq or Iran. Extremist elected politicians in control of Pakistan can create threats for world peace more lethal than North Korea’s begging bowl bluster or Iran’s wily diplomatic maneuvers.
With Washington and Europe focused on North Korea and Iraq, the Taliban might slip through the cracks to turn Pakistan into a US-hating radicalized state governed by Sharia-law. With just a month to go, these elections deserve more attention.
Pakistan graphic via shutterstock.com