President Barack Obama’s promises today of expanded US military support to Poland and countries formerly dominated by the defunct Soviet Union were music to their ears, but not others in Europe. They could also cause new entanglements that may not please American voters.
The former Soviet satellites are now members of the European Union and NATO, the western military alliance. Obama was giving assurances that Washington will stand by them in case relations with Russia take a further dive following its covert interventions in east Ukraine and outright annexation of Crimea.
Voters in other EU and NATO countries are much more cautious and could shy away if Obama’s desire to strengthen the military capacity of Poland and new NATO members heightens military or economic tensions with Moscow. That would put Obama at risk of isolation.
Speaking in a military hangar in Warsaw, Obama was direct, “I am starting the visit here because our commitment to Poland’s security, as well as the security of our allies in central and eastern Europe, is a cornerstone of our own security. It is sacrosanct.”
He announced a new $1 billion fund to increase military training and assistance for NATO allies near Russia. He plans to position more defense equipment in those countries and strengthen partnerships with non-members, as Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia.
These are early days and much depends on how Obama implements the pledges but Putin is not running scared. He is likely to respond in kind, especially as the fighting in east Ukraine has worsened and he could still provoke a separation of the pro-Russian Donbas region.
Donbas is Ukraine’s most densely populated and heavily industrialized region. It includes the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk where the Kiev government — which the US and EU support — is using fighter aircraft, heavy artillery, helicopters and professional soldiers to defeat pro-Russian separatists. In effect, Kiev is using the full panoply of military power against people it insists are Ukrainian citizens.
A top justice ministry official said in Kiev today at least 181 people have been killed in Donbas, including 59 soldiers. About 293 people, including civilians, have been wounded and 220 kidnapped.
There is a dialogue of the deaf between Obama and Putin with each blaming the other of covertly fuelling the war. If the incipient civil war becomes worse, Putin has authority from his national parliament to take military action as necessary to protect the lives of Russian speakers in Ukraine and elsewhere. If his troops enter east Ukraine, NATO will be powerless as Ukraine is not a member.
In any case, Europeans are unlikely to go to war over Ukraine and may not even countenance more severe economic sanctions against Russia, partly because annual EU-Russia trade is $500 billion and growing while US trade is barely $40 billion.
Most Europeans, particularly Germans, depend on Russian gas and oil supplies for up to half their needs. Washington thinks they could turn to the US for supplies driven by the shale oil boom but that is not feasible because of the very long time lags.
The 2035 outlook published by the prestigious International Energy Agency this week says supplies of American shale oil and gas are likely to “run out of steam in the 2020s”. That means supplies from Russia will still be crucial for Europe since it is the world’s biggest producer. Crimea’s annexation would provides a shorter route through the Black Sea if new pipelines are built.
Annexing Donbas is also attractive for Putin because it would consolidate a major coal-producing region containing reserves for several decades with Russia’s Rostok coal belt, which is starting to deplete.
Some experts say Russia’s oil and gas resources could become less productive but Putin concluded a 30-year deal last week with China’s Xi Jinping to supply gas through new pipelines that Beijing will finance for $50 billion. The deal’s importance cannot be overstated since it signifies a long-term swing towards China.
Putin would like to be a thriving economic partner for both Europe and China but may turn away more quickly if Obama’s tilt towards Poland and new NATO members widens the distance between Washington and Moscow.
For Putin, ingratiating XI who has eight more years in power might be much more profitable than bending to Obama. That is partly because China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported $5.94 trillion in external financial assets at year-end 2013. China has US Treasury bonds and other securities –including industrial and other assets extending from Australia and Africa to America — that equal more than half its $8.4 trillion economy! It has foreign exchange reserves of over $3.4 trillion!
Attracting ambitious Chinese investors will not be too hard if the White House tries to cause pain to Putin by coercing American companies to exit Russia under new energy sector sanctions.
Rattling NATO’s sabers may also fail to impress Putin since he is not threatening any NATO frontier. However, he has already stationed SS-21 and SS-26 missiles in the vital Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, which is surrounded by Lithuania and Poland — both recent NATO and EU members. The missiles have enough range to reach Berlin. He has also built a strategic surveillance radar against US anti missile defenses and is adding air defense installations covering hundreds of kilometers.