Early reactions from Europe and Asia to President Barack Obama’s elegant eloquence include caution and puzzlement at the key issues left out, although they stem from Mideast events and his support for democracy and human liberties.
Somewhat like an educator, he clarified the broad lines of US policies in the Mideast and explained the recent historical context. But they were mostly restatements of already well known American idealism. The overall hope now is that the ideals and actual practice will move forward in synchrony. The proof will come when the US consistently withdraws support from authoritarian rulers to help over 400 million ordinary Arabs to rise from under the dictators and kings nurtured earlier.
But Obama offered almost no new elements of hope to Europeans, who live much closer to the tumultuous Mideast than the US. Their major fear is of an intolerable flood of tens of thousand illegal immigrants if the “spring revolutions” in Arab countries turn into unstable democracies incapable of creating prosperity.
The grassroots rebellion against authoritarian rule stems from people saying “enough is enough” to rulers who have failed to deliver jobs and fairer economic growth. Democracy, freedom of expression and respect for human rights are important contributors to the overall motivations. But the core reasons why people continue to fearlessly face bullets are their frustration at having few economic prospects because their authoritarian governments are stifling economic growth.
Obama addressed this frustration but did not go far enough. He offered about $2 billion to Tunisia and Egypt in debt forgiveness and credit while asking a European Union lending facility to help with further loans and advice. He also suggested special trade concessions to boost economic activity and attract more countries towards democracy. These are helpful but tiny gestures.
For instance, Egyptians are still living under military rulers who arrest and torture opponents while prospects for jobs and economic growth have worsened significantly. Obama is pinning hopes on elections later this year to produce governments capable of shepherding transition to successful economies and democracy in Tunisia and Egypt. But he left the heavy lighting to the people as if the jobless venting their frustration on the streets will miraculously know how to organize the economic flows needed to create jobs.
He offered nothing on Libya to allay fears that the current stalemate between Muammar Gaddafi and the rebels will turn into a partition of the country requiring more Western military commitment to the rebel-held sectors. He did not declare Syria’s Bashar al- Assad a pariah despite the brutal repression in Syria. He rapped Bahrain’s rulers on the knuckles softly while saying nothing about Saudi Arabia, the Mideast’s 800lb gorilla.
Obama did move forward a little on the Israel-Palestine question by clearly stating his preference for a two state solution along the 1967 border with some small territorial exchanges. He also supported agreement on borders and guarantees for Israel’s security as the first order of business for peace talks, followed later by the core issues of Jerusalem and the right of return of Palestinian refugees. Many see this kind of fragmented process as flawed.
His speech gives no reason to believe that there are sufficient new incentives for serious peace talks to resume. He seemed to appeal to common sense on both sides as a driving force for peace but offered no new US leadership to light a fire under the peace process.
However, the speech does raise hopes even if the contents are not particularly new. It may yet turn into a new foreign policy stick for his opponents to flail against him, if actions do not follow his commonsensical and sometimes inspiring words.