In terms of money, Democratic Presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama is riding record-high on the fund raising front. Which begs the question: will he make efficient use of his big bucks?
Sen. Barack Obama raised $66 million in the month of August, making it his best month ever and the best in American political history, an aide said Sunday morning.
Obama is releasing that number after suggestions that his fundraising was failing to meet expectations. It puts him on pace to substantially outspend John McCain in the last two months of the race, in which McCain will be limited to spending the $84 million supplied by the Treasury under public financing rules.
Obama’s large take, and the expectation that he’ll raise even more in the race’s final two months, may put to rest some Democrats’ worries that he’d made a mistake by opting out of public financing.
In other words, the figure is released to show that the emerging conventional wisdom was (again) wrong in campaign 2008 (so far). On the other hand:
It doesn’t mean the Democrats will outspend the Republicans this year, though. The Republican National Committee’s cash advantage over the Democratic National Committee, in combination with swelling outside spending, will likely allow McCain to level the playing field, though the fact that Obama has raised the money himself, in small chunks, gives him direct control over how it’s spent, and fewer concerns about technical limits on spending.
An Obama aide said the campaign added 500,000 new donors to its rolls in August. The new figure — which shatters his previous one-month record of $55 million — also demonstrates how the increasingly heated, nasty race has energized Obama’s fundraising and raises expectations that he will raise that much or more in each of the next two months.
Obama’s tally suggests that McCain’s late-August choice of Sarah Palin, which has energized conservatives — though largely too late for them to contribute directly to McCain’s campaign — may also wind up deepening Obama’s reserves when its full effect is felt in his September report.
Indeed, Palin has energized Republican contributions so it stands to reason it would also energize Democratic contributions — particularly as polls show that the McCain convention “bounce” could be something more profound: a reunification of the seemingly splintered Republican party, a closing of the enthusiasm gap, and a reshaping of what the Democrats thought could be their winning coalition as Palin picks up a big chunk of women voters including some Democrats.
Now the question becomes: how will Obama use these funds?
Will the campaign waste it use it on ads such as the recent one that sought to show McCain was out of touch by noting a McCain failing: he isn’t a computer geek. Did the campaign REALLY think a voter would say: “I was going to vote for McCain but by golly if he doesn’t know how to send email then how can he possibly make the decisions necessary to be President?” HINT TO OBAMA CAMPAIGN: Didn’t you want to get votes from senior citizens — a group that includes many folks who don’t hover over computers or don’t even use them?
Obama will need his campaign funds — and need to raise more — because the political landscale for him is now a mixed bag, with an incredibly big hole in the bag in some cases. CONSIDER:
—A new poll in Minnesota shows McCain and Obama are even. In May McCain had been behind by 14 points.
–McCain is now ahead in several key national polls. Convention bounce? Part of it: No. The poll shows Palin scoring higher among women when it comes to sharing their values than McCain or Obama.
–The bright spot is Iowa, where Obama remains ahead. The AP:
THE NUMBERS: Barack Obama 52 percent, John McCain 40 percent.[Likely voters…]
OF INTEREST: Iowa has long been viewed as a battleground state, in part because of narrow margins of victory in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, but Obama appears to have opened up a wide lead. Iowa went narrowly for the Republican, President Bush, in 2004, as it did for the Democrat, former Vice President Al Gore, in 2000.
–Obama is in trouble in Florida, according to the St. Petersburg Times:
Barack Obama could be on the verge of falling out of contention in Florida.
Despite spending an estimated $8 million on campaign ads in America’s biggest battleground state and putting in place the largest Democratic campaign organization ever in Florida, Obama has lost ground over the summer. Florida has moved from a toss-up state to one that clearly leans toward John McCain, fuelling speculation about how much longer the Democratic nominee will continue investing so heavily in the state.
Obama can still win Florida despite the polling gains McCain has made since naming Sarah Palin his running mate, and there is no sign Obama is pulling back in Florida yet. Obama allies say he has about 350 paid staffers in the state and about 50 field offices, including in places not known as fertile ground for Democrats.
But for all the attention to Florida from the Obama campaign, there’s little tangible evidence it’s paying off.
–McCain now has a five point lead in Missouri.
The biggest thing Obama has going for him now during this sagging period: the narrative that has been ongoing in the progressive blogosphere for sometime is now spreading in the mainstream media and could impact the way the McCain camp’s pronouncements are framed: the wheels have come off the Straight Talk Express as it crashed into something called political expediency. Read this roundup on the progressive blog The All Spin Zone. Syndicated columnist Richard Reeves contends this tactic will not work this year.
MORE BAD NEWS FOR OBAMA: Electoral-vote.com now shows McCain leading in electoral votes 270 to 268 — after months of Obama being in the lead:
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.