Democratic Presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama is now leading Republican Sen. John McCain in the key battleground states of Florida and Ohio, according to the latest Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll .
For Democrats there is a particular passion for winning Florida, given its role in the past two Presidential elections. And the poll suggest these numbers are outside of the margin of error:
Barack Obama is leading Republican presidential rival John McCain in two battleground states, Florida and Ohio, where voters have more confidence in his ability to handle the troubled economy, a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll has found.
In Ohio, a state that has been battered for years by unemployment and plant closings, Obama is leading McCain by 49% to 40% among people likely to vote.
In Florida, a state that was considered a likely win for Republicans not long ago, McCain is trailing, 50% to 43%.
This poll further underscores a seeming disconnect between political segments in American society.
Pro-Democratic blogs, independent websites and analysts and the media point to this and other polls as mounting signs that Obama appears on track for a win. But nearly 3 hours of listening to conservative talk radio shows today (including one by a host who says he is an independent) revealed a strong growing counter belief — that a variety of polls now show the race is seriously tightening and that McCain’s insinuation that Obama is a Socialist in all but name is catching on. (This claim was choed by Joe The Plumber, who now has formally endorsed McCain and who also has now proclaimed Obama a danger to Israel…)
The latest Gallup Daily tracking poll does show the race slightly tightening:
The gap between Barack Obama and John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Saturday through Monday has narrowed slightly, and Obama is now at 49% of the vote to 47% for McCain among likely voters using Gallup’s traditional model, and at 51% to 44% using Gallup’s expanded model.
Both candidates continued vigorous campaigning on Monday. One forthcoming event with the potential to affect voter sentiments is a 30-minute Barack Obama paid program, for which his campaign has purchased time on Wednesday night on a number of national broadcast and cable television networks.
Once again, however, there is an assumption — an assumption that Obama’s broadcast will be a plus. Could he say something or leave an impression that turns off some voters? (Literally stay tuned tomorrow…)
The Times also gives this detail on the Times/Bloomberg polls
In both states, Obama, a Democrat, has opened commanding leads over McCain among women, young people, first-time voters and blacks and other minorities.
McCain is still viewed as far better equipped than Obama to deal with terrorism and the war in Iraq, because of his signature expertise in national security issues. But voters in Ohio and Florida do not see those issues as paramount, in light of the turmoil in the economy and on Wall Street.
Can this change? Perhaps. But early voting is now a major factor — voters who will not be influenced by events, charges or campaign themes that pop up during the final days of the campaign.
Note also that polls are contradictory. So don’t expect either campaign to stop battling in Ohio and Florida until the only poll that really matters is completed.
Check the Real Clear Politics’ page of battleground state polls.
Cartoon by Jeff Parker, Florida Today
UPDATE: The New Republic’s Noam Scheiber is nervous about the media’s new conventional wisdom that Obama is likely to win:
As of this writing, Obama’s lead in the national tracking polls looks to be around five points (I get 5.5 when I average all six of the trackers I mentioned, along with the Hotline and Battleground trackers, which haven’t changed much in the last few days). If that drops two-to-three points, as it easily could in a week, I don’t think it’s crazy to think McCain will have a shot at winning Pennsylvania, Virginia, and/or Colorado. Unlikely, yes, but not crazy. According to sites like Real Clear and Pollster.com, Obama’s lead in those states is currently larger than his 5.5 point national lead (significantly so in Pennsylvania). But, as I argued last week, the relationship between battleground-state numbers and national numbers can change significantly as we approach the finish, and those state averages you see could easily be a week out of date.
My immediate concern is twofold: That McCain is getting some traction with his liberal/socialist/redistributionist charge–the WaPo tracker shows McCain narrowing the gap on the economy over the last week–and, in light of this, that Obama is striking his high-note a few days too early. I’d feel more comfortable if he roughed McCain up a bit longer (though, in fairness, his “closing argument” speech is very good and it does take some swipes at McCain. Also, it’s not like the campaign isn’t still running tough ads.).
One point is well taken: in the primaries, when Obama was ahead he had a tendency to coast a bit and not aggressively campaign — and he paid a price. Will he again assume the stance of a statesman and wind up looking Dewey-esque on election day? The conventional wisdom has been turned on its ear so often in Campaign 2008, it is not outside the realm of imagination to see it happening again. Outside the real of probability — yes. Outside the real of possibility given certain factors….no.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.