CNN and NBC are now projecting that Illinois Senator Barack Obama will win the Democratic Iowa causes vote — with polling so far showing former Senator John Edwards narrowly leading New York Senator Hillary Clinton:
Mike Huckabee will be the Republican winner in Iowa, CNN projects.
With 76 percent of precincts reporting, Obama had the support of 36 percent of voters, compared to 31 percent for Edwards and 30 percent for Clinton.
With 41 percent of Republican precincts reporting, Huckabee had the support of 31 percent of voters, compared to 23 percent for Mitt Romney. Fred Thompson had 13 percent and John McCain had 12.
Rudy Giuliani, who has turned the focus of his campaign to the February 5 “Super Tuesday” primaries, trailed behind with 11 percent.
Huckabee’s victory can be attributed to his overwhelming support among evangelical voters and women, according to CNN analysis of entrance polls.
Unlike the more complicated Democratic caucuses, the GOP results are tabulated by a single straw poll.
Polls taken as Iowans entered the first-in-the-nation caucuses show a tight race for both parties.
With such a close race on both sides, voter turnout is key.
Obama’s victory shatters the argument that Clinton is “inevitable” and that voters will pick experience over change. Clinton may still have an edge in New Hampshire (most polls show she does) but she’ll go into that race now with her team having to do spin galore on how this vote doesn’t really matter and how Iowa doesn’t reflect “real” voting. But it can’t be anything than this: a LOSS.
Edwards will likely still be in the running as the anti-Clinton and the anti-Obama. But it’s hard to see how he will now break out of his second-rank status.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.