Whatever happens in California and New Mexico at this point, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will come out close to a tie tonight. Add that to the existing 15 delegate lead for Obama up to now and Obama has a small delegate lead out of Super Tuesday. Let’s be honest here. This is a tough spot for Hillary Clinton going forward. Obama will rake in huge bucks the next few days as he did after NH. He’ll have time to campaign in individual states and build support. And the next states are LA, NE, ME, DC, MD, VA, WA and WI. It’s plausible that Obama could win all of those (LA would be closest) and come out with a huge delegate lead going into March 4 and OH and TX. Hillary will need a HUGE win in TX to survive at that point, as OH will be very close (large black population).
The only thing that helps Hillary is superdelegates and the prospect of seating FL and MI. I think FL and MI will only be sat if Hillary is already the nominee. In other words, they won’t really matter.
So that leaves superdelegates. I’ll say this now. If one candidate is leading among pledged primary/caucus delegates and the supers throw the race to the other candidate, the Democratic Party will be effectively destroyed. I think the supers – Congressmen, Governors, etc. – understand this and will support whoever wins the pledged delegates.
Think about the remaining states and see if you can map out a Hillary victory, excluding superdelegates. She has the advantage in Rhode Island, Kentucky, West Virginia and Texas. PA and OH are very close because of the large AA population in both states. Probably Louisiana too. But Obama has a huge advantage in WI, WA, OR, WY, IN, VT, VA, MD, DC, Dems Abroad and SD.
Hillary Clinton needed a decisive win tonight to make Obama’s path impossible. She failed to do that. Looks pretty good for Obama going forward.
One other thing on Obama’s side. He is winning in all sections of the country. He is using a 50-state strategy and that is helping sustain him despite big state victories for Hillary.
Cartoon by RJ Matson, The New York Observer