One of the media narratives thrown about in recent weeks is the notion that lots of folks voted for and supported Obama for a variety of reasons in 2008, but have since become disillusioned. Various anecdotes have come forward – some probably concern trollish and some genuine – of people who have developed buyer’s remorse. These narratives come from center-right voters who thought Obama would be less liberal than he actually is, and from left-liberals who think he’s selling progressives short. The combined effect of disappointment from Obama’s 2008 voters supposedly spells trouble in the 2010 midterm elections.
But is there really a sizable segment of 2008 Obama voters who actually disapprove of him now? According to PPP, the answer is no. In fact, only 4 percent of Obama voters disapprove of him, a number so small that it practically fits inside the margin of error. Moreover, the number could easily represent the far left as much as it does people on the center-right “angry about spending, etc.” On the other hand, 10 percent of McCain voters approve of Obama – these may be national security voters happy about Obama’s commitment on Afghanistan (conservatives actually back Obama more than liberals on this), or center-right voters who just thing Obama is doing the best he can with a tough situation.
Either way, the notion that there is some sizable pool of “buyer’s remorse voters” out there who regret their 2008 vote, or even disapprove of the man they once supported, is a media creation. This doesn’t mean that voters – including Obama voters – approve of his handling of every issue. It just means that they think he is doing a good job overall.
While Obama’s support levels have fallen back roughly to where they were on election night 2008, there is little indication that these numbers will fall any further. This could change, of course, as it did for Bush. But it will take a lot more than the heated health care debates to undo Obama’s majority support.
What can cause his approval numbers to truly crater?
1) A scandal. That would tarnish his image worse than it ever did for Clinton.
2) Afghan quagmire – Liberals are already dissatisfied with the war there, but are currently focused on domestic issues.
3) Persistent recession – Obama voters are still very patient with the President on the economy. But that could run out if the economy is still faltering a year from now.
4) Failure to pass health care reform – This is the kicker. Obama voters have mixed feelings on the President’s handling of the health care issue. Reading through Democratic base rantings on places like Daily Kos is like a roller coaster – one day Obama is a traitor and another day he is a hero. Run the polling numbers on a day when Obama talks down the public option and you can expect his health care numbers from progressives to plummet. But if a real reform bill is passed, Obama voters will feel vindicated in the end.
The story here may be that we have never gotten over our red-blue divide. The honeymoon is over and the opposition is alive and kicking. But it’s also true that Obama’s voters, who make up 53% of the electorate, are still with the President. And given the train wreck facing Republican politicians these days – and the general unpopularity of Congressional Democratic leaders – that 53% base makes Obama the most popular and powerful active politician in America.