President Barack Obama has begun sculpting political realignments in Asia that could put his stamp on geopolitics. After over 15 years of neglect, he is trying to build a new vision for South East Asia and the Far East, which are emerging global power hubs expected to become richer than Europe.
But the likely humiliation of Democrats in the mid-term elections will deal another blow to respect for America and its President. It is no longer like 10 years ago and has slipped further since the economic meltdown of 2008 and the so far inconclusive wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. His administration is avoiding fanfare about this Asian gambit in case it turns into a fruitless gamble.
The US has been Asia’s preponderant political and military power since World War II. Now it faces being dethroned by China so Obama wants to turn Asia into a zone without a politically dominant power. Instead, there would be a balance among several powers including China, India and a South East Asian countries tied to Washington through strategic partnerships amounting to informal alliances.
To take first steps towards this vision, Obama will visit India, Indonesia, South Korea and Japan starting within days of the mid-term elections. China must be contained without seeming to contain it so his innovation is to start bringing Asia’s other major powers to America’s side. This is surprising since India is prickly, raucous and disobedient and Indonesia is a major Muslim majority nation with weak democratic institutions. South Korea is a mercantilist that needs China both for profit and to moderate North Korea. Japan is no longer a meek ally but is increasingly assertive in relations with Washington.
The Presidential tour starts in India and he will stay longer than he has in any other country so far. In deference to Indian sensitivities he will not visit Pakistan or China during the same tour. The publicly stated agenda is thin and concerns mainly economic cooperation. Perhaps India will start the ball rolling by placing large orders for peaceful nuclear energy reactors and civilian and military aircraft.
But there is another agenda. That is to exploit India’s increasing fears about China’s assertiveness in bilateral relations, including border disputes and its pro-Pakistan tilt. Indo-Pakistan disputes have caused four wars and over two decades of Islamabad-inspired terrorist attacks in India. Now China is supplying weapons and political support to Pakistan, apparently against India. These are early days but India is listening carefully while pretending otherwise to avoid red flags in Beijing.
Obama has a similar quiet agenda in Indonesia, which is a vital kingpin in Asia-Pacific and Australasian security. There is rising concern that China will use its burgeoning blue water navy fleet and submarines to bid for preponderance in the South China Sea and Malaccan Straits, which hold the key to shipping between the Pacific and Indian Oceans. China does not need to seize control. It is enough to create a situation where the smaller South East Asian countries cannot say “no” to Chinese pressure.
South Korea is already a US military ally but it is so heavily tied into the Chinese mainland for lower cost manufacturing that it avoids appearance of siding with America against China. Japan is also in a difficult position. It already has several unresolved disputes with China over islands and their territorial waters. And it is now a restive US ally trying to loosen US dominance on security issues and relations with China.
Yet all these powers are listening carefully to assess how far they can go to grasping Obama’s outstretched hand without causing too much irritation in Beijing. Much will depend on whether they think Obama and the US have the power and resilience to stand beside them if China reacts violently. They will not move if they think the midterm elections have further weakened Obama’s Presidency.
Many believe Chinese political hegemony in Asia would be retrograde and undesirable but few are convinced Obama has the nerve needed to set redlines for China’s political ambitions in Asia and remain steadfastly behind friends and allies that stand up to Beijing. To some he looks like a one term President at this time and risking Beijing’s anger to give support to his ideas may be one step too far. Obama’s ideas are beneficial for all concerned but persuading the key countries will not be easy.