Are Democrats starting to feel afraid of nominating Hillary Clinton because she is perceived as too polarizing and too risky? According to this report, the answer is yes:
Democrats are so intent on winning the White House in 2008 they may be afraid to nominate Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., several top pollsters conclude.
Convinced that Clinton is too divisive to win a general election, many Democrats are looking for a candidate with more crossover appeal, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported Sunday.
Lee Miringoff, who has done more polling on Clinton than any other analyst, said she is clearly the front-runner for the nomination — but there is concern about her electability, especially in red states, states that went for President George W. Bush in 2004. In Miringoff’s latest Marist Poll, Clinton was the choice of 33 percent of Democrats.
The Gallup organization clocked Clinton at 39 percent, but told subscribers she was a “polarizing figure.”
GOP pollster Frank Luntz, who just completed focus group research with Democrats in Iowa and New Hampshire, concluded the party will not nominate a candidate it fears will lose to Republicans.
Of course, this kind of early story is interesting because it monitors attitudes, but main monkey wrench in drawing conclusions from this is the fact that aside from money (and Hillary Clinton has lots of it) the key test for her is going to be how she fares in the primaries with voters and how she looks when compared to other Democratic candidates.
What kind of local and national media coverage will she be getting at the time? What kind of “reviews” will be coming in about her performance?
How will her campaign play with the general public as her pronouncements get more and more airtime on television? Who will seem to be the likely GOP candidate? In 1968 Richard Nixon reassured enough Americans that he was a “new Nixon.” Can Ms. Clinton reassure the non-Hillary haters who don’t support her so the polarization issue is at least neutralized?
This is one reason why her re-election campaign in New York state is so important. If it’s done impressively and centers on solid issues it’ll enhance her image. If there’s a hitch and it becomes a bitter, controversial contest, it’s likely to keep her negatives intact or drive them up a bit…because her campaign will get some national coverage.
But the bottom line is that Clinton’s prospects are likely to hinge on how she does in the primaries in terms of votes, imagery, and who see would seem likely to face as nominee on the GOP side.
Another reason not to write her off: hasn’t the U.S. elected and re-elected a polarizing political figure before?
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.