Northamptonshire, England — Its 2pm and I am sitting at my desk, shocked. Newt Gingrich has won the South Carolina primary with 40% of the vote. Seriously. As someone who passionately studies American politics and understands Newt’s place in American history, this is shocking. I expected him to win after the debates, but by this margin? Shocked.
It is understandable that Democrats are grinning like Cheshire Cats, but if I were them, I will hold the glee.
I do not believe that the 2012 election will be an election solely fought on the economy. The economy is getting better and if the unemployment rate gets below 8%, I think there is a credible positive message for Obama to run on. I also think that this undermines the very foundations of the Romney campaigns.
So ultimately I believe that the 2012 general election will be your typical get- out-the base election. Gingrich, as unbelievable as his candidacy is, can get out the Republican base better than Romney. Gingrich is not plagued by Romney Care and Gingrich has shown to have what it takes to fire up his base with fiery attacks on President Obama.
For me, Mitt Romney is the best bet for President Obama to be re-elected. He is the very candidate that Plouffe and Axelrod want to fight in this political climate. He’s filthy rich, he pays a super low tax-rate, Bain (!!!) and he reminds people (okay, me) of Gordon Gekko.
Just a normal everyday bloke writing about films.