HILLSBORO, Missouri — What if a state held a non-binding Presidential primary and the current front-runner for the Republican Presidential nomination wasn’t on the ballot? That’ll happen in Missouri on March 17 and just weeks ago the always correct (except when it’s wrong) conventional wisdom insisted this illustrated how former House Speaker Newt Gingrich had no “ground game.” And so, it was implied, Gingrich was doomed in his battle against his prime challenger, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Until now.
If you’ve been woken up with a “BOOM!” it was the sound of the conventional wisdom imploding.
The catalyst was the demise of former Godfather’s CEO Herman Cain’s candidacy as the anti-Romney in hardline conservatives’ ongoing battle with the Republican Party’s center-right establishment. Then came the (in)famous ABC Yahoo debate where Gingrich solidified his status as the party’s best debater. And I’ll bet Mitt Romney three White Castle hamburgers plus a baggie of my toenail clippings that Romney’s challenge to bet Texas Gov. Rick Perry $10,000 that Perry was wrong about what he claimed Romney said in his book gave Romney the image of someone born with a silver flip-flop in his mouth.
How could the conventional wisdom fail? Because it feeds on itself.
Often smug pundits who do cable shows, write political stories, or write columns (like me) read or listen to each other which creates an unintentional group narrative reinforced by a) narrative-compatible polls and b) the pundits’ confidence in their own analytical abilities. It’s less an echo chamber than disciples repeating a Guru’s mantra with supreme faith in the end result. If a conventional wisdom narrative fails it’s seldom acknowledged and discreetly discarded.
The new CW line is that Romney is a 2011 version of the 2008 Hillary Clinton hampered by his state healthcare plan, not his Iraq War stand. Actually, Gingrich is a 2011 version of the 2008 John McCain who seemed politically dead yet but made a fool of the conventional wisdom by getting the Republican nomination in the end.
Gingrich is a highly intelligent, charismatic quote machine bursting with ideas (some of them lousy) who takes glee in negatively defining and demonizing foes. The conventional wisdom underestimated his appeal since Romney was more of a 20th century GOP candidate, has a huge campaign chest plus impressive GOP establishment support. Gingrich is the GOP’s 21st century Tea Party movement and talk radio political culture candidate. In fact, he helped shape the polarizing, confrontational talkers’ style and mega-partisan politics we all “enjoy” today.
Some top conservative talk personalities are now alarmed by Gingrich’s ascent because they fear The Old “Bad” Newt (circa 1992) could re-emerge, commit political suicide by mouth and blow their party’s chance to defeat the job-approval-challenged President Barack Obama.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.