A new MSNBC-Wall Street Journal poll showing Democratic presumptive nominee Senator Barack Obama with a 6 point lead over virtually certain GOP nominee Senator John McCain has some red warning flags for McCain and the GOP.
Perhaps the best analyses of aspects of the polls comes via the political junkie’s increasingly indispensible site MSNBC’s First Read. Here are three key portions on the polls. MSNBC notes that:
1. Obama is showing strength in areas where many pundits and pollsters found he was previously weak, such as blue-collar workers and white women:
Days after becoming his party’s presumptive nominee and receiving Clinton’s endorsement, Obama has opened up a six-point advantage over McCain (47%-41%) in the latest NBC/WSJ poll, which is up three points from Obama’s lead in April. Perhaps the most fascinating numbers are in the crosstabs, and some of the numbers will surprise folks who memorized every exit poll from the Democratic primaries. Obama leads McCain among African Americans (83-7), Hispanics (62-28), women (52-33), Catholics (47-40), independents (41-36) and even blue-collar workers (47-42). Obama is also ahead among those who said they voted for Clinton in the Democratic primaries (61-19). Meanwhile, McCain is up among evangelicals (69-21), white men (55-35), men (49-41), whites (47-41), and white suburban women (44-38).
However, Obama has a seven-point edge (46-39) among all white women. How important is that lead? NBC/WSJ co-pollster Neil Newhouse (R) explains that Republican candidates always expect to win white men by a substantial margin, but it’s white women that usually decide the race. “If a Republican wins among white women, we usually win that election,” he says, noting that George Bush carried that group in 2000 and 2004. The poll was conducted of 1,000 registered voters from June 6-9 (Clinton endorsed Obama on June 7), and it has a +/- 3.1% margin of error.
LIKELY IMPACT: Obama still has a lot of work to do in winning over women, particularly women who were former Hillary Clinton supporters. But now that Clinton is out of the race, what would be considered to be normal Democratic constituencies are returning to the party faithful fold.
2. The anchor that is weighting McCain down is someone named B-u-s-h. MSNBC:
We hate to sound like a broken record, but just how bad is the political environment for McCain and the Republican Party? Let’s start with Bush, whose job approval rating is just 28%, up one point from his all-time low. Then add this: 54% say that they’re looking for a new president who would bring greater changes to current policies, even if that person is less experienced and tested. By contrast, 42% say they’d rather have a more experienced and tested person become president, even if that means fewer changes to current policies. “The 200-pound ball and chain around McCain’s foot is George W. Bush,” says NBC/WSJ co-pollster Peter D. Hart (D). “Unless he figures out a way to cut it loose, he’s going to be dragging it throughout this election.” Newhouse adds: “Voters are not convinced that McCain represents the change they want and that he’ll be all that different from Bush.” Indeed, according to the poll, 48% say it’s likely that Obama will be real change to the country. Just 21% say that of McCain.
In other words:
Voter are asking more than an oil change for their increasingly hard-to-operate cars. They are seeking to trade in their car for a new car. Can McCain present himself as a new model? Or will voters conclude they don’t want a Ford and Obama is a Chevy but McCain is just another model made by Ford? McCain’s balancing act has always been virtually impossible. But now he must distance himself from Bush and retain his party base. What’s the most likely way to do that? Keep going on attack against Obama and make Obama the issue (and hope that voters will forget they want to trade in their car).
3. If you look at past MSNBC/WSJ polls there is a historical trend — and McCain is fitting into it. NBC’s Mark Murray:
In the latest NBC/WSJ poll, Obama leads McCain by six points (47%-41%) among registered voters. While polls can’t accurately gauge an election five months out — after all, so much can still happen — it’s worth putting Obama’s lead into this perspective: Bush never trailed Kerry in the 2004 NBC/WSJ polls that measured registered voters’ preference for Bush, Kerry, and Nader. And Bush’s lead was never bigger than four points.
Bush won that presidential election by three percentage points, 51%-48%.
And this doesn’t even factor into the equation the likely impact of Libertarian Presidential Candidate Bob Barr…
Can McCain get the swing voters, independent voters and centrists that are needed to cross over and pad out the voting ranks of the party faithful? And can he get the votes of the party faithful if he shows he’s seems like he’s breaking too much with B-u-s-h?
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.