With naïve carelessness, the United States is moving towards a new generational Cold War that may be the turning point in unraveling American leadership of the modern world. Pax Americana may be the shortest ever in the history of empires.
The administration, media, politicians and a large swathe of electors are working themselves into an anti-Iranian frenzy and speedily moving towards a long era of hostility to that country. The US may never bomb Iran or conduct any other military act against it, but enough fear is being created to make Teheran nervously gather all means of deterrence.
The latest episode is the insulting treatment of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad during the last few days. He came to New York as the President of an ancient civilization for meetings at the United Nations. Columbia University voluntarily invited him to speak but its President Lee Bollinger repeatedly insulted him in the introductory remarks before hearing what he had to say.
Many people, including this writer, believe those insults were richly deserved and congratulate the University for upholding free speech by offering a podium. However, it is uncouth to invite a person and insult him before he has said a word. If this was Bollinger’s intention, he should not have invited Ahmadinejad in the first place. Whatever the opposition to Ahmadinejad within Iran, its people will not forget the humiliation dumped on their representative in a country with which many would like to build bridges.
Despite the trauma of 9/11 and the quagmire of Iraq, American leaders seem to think that their military and economic power confers some kind of invincibility upon them. Perhaps because of that, many feel it is okay to insult a foreign leader who sees the national interests of his people in a light they dislike.
Clearly, Ahmadinejad is despicable as regards his views on the Holocaust, but some of his worldview is not without backers in his own country and elsewhere. Today, it would be hard to find people outside America who do not agree that the way the US government tries to manage the world “leads to war, discrimination and bloodshed.â€
If the contempt of Americans for Iran is not reined in, a Cold War growing from a clash of civilisations with Islam may become inevitable. The fact is that the US is making enemies of both Sunni and Shiites. It has broken the back of Sunni power in Iraq and is backing a Shiite revival there, which is creating fear throughout the Sunni world.
At the same time, it is threatening to bomb the Shia heartland, which is Iran, thus forcing Teheran to collect all possible means of asymmetrical warfare. Iran is increasing its capabilities of fostering terrorism and insurgency in Iraq, Lebanon, Afghanistan and elsewhere. Its goal is to ensure that any military attack against it will spread uncontrollable political instability and violence throughout the Middle East. It is also secretly developing nuclear weapons to bring vulnerability to Israel, the chief US ally in the region.
With almost naïve insouciance, the US is making enemies among the fundamentalist Sunnis of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan and Indonesia who are far more fierce religious fanatics than the more mystical Shiites. This is happening because the US has dismantled the frontline Sunni bulwark against Shiites in Iraq. The fundamentalist Sunnis have already demonstrated on 9/11 and later that they are more willing terrorists that Shiites.
Simultaneously, the growing hostility of the American people (not just the government) towards Iran is edging towards a clash with the Shiites. Americans are pretending that Ahmadinejad is the culprit and all will be fine if he is dislodged from power. That is far from the truth. The US is creating fear in the people of Iran, not in Ahmadinejad.
Any future Iranian President will be a nationalist and will not allow his ancient people to be humiliated by Washington through threats and insults. Inevitably, any Iranian regime will amass the means of deterrence including nuclear weapons.
At the same time, both Sunni and Shia Muslims in the street will be wary of America, if not hostile. Their dictatorial rulers, including the Arab sheikhs allied to Washington, may not be able to contain the growing anti-American anger of their people. All of those are the ingredients of a prolonged Cold War.