In small steps, the US is advancing towards a long war of attrition with all Islamic terrorists, both Sunni and Shiite. So far, hatred of America has inflamed mostly Sunni terrorists led by Al Qaeda but the Shiites may be just a few steps behind.
Sunni rage resulted in 9/11/2001 and its aftermath including bomb attacks in Madrid and London, and the current terrorist plots in Britain, Germany and Denmark. It has also turned Iraq into a factory to manufacture battle hardened Sunni terrorists.
Soon Shiite hearts might be ablaze if the Iranian government, leader of Shiite Islam, is humiliated in coming weeks. At this time, it seems plausible that America will bomb Iran before yearend. Almost certainly, it will impose severe economic and other sanctions.
But Americans will not be safer since Shiite Islam and the wider Islamic street, including Muslims born in the West, will become more fervent recruiting grounds for terrorists. It would be far better for Washington to take a deep breath, listen a little more carefully and have a frank dialogue for peace and security with Iran.
This is not appeasement. This is forethought because Iran does have security concerns and national interests that deserve open-minded hearing in bilateral talks before going to naked war. So far, it is not a predator regime seeking riches by conquering foreigners. Nor is it demanding pay off before lifting an imminent and direct military threat to America.
In this war of attrition, America will not be able to score decisive victories as in the 20th century’s Great Wars since the terrorists live in the homeland. Many are American and European citizens bred here.
Attacking or even destroying the nation of Iran may have no substantive effect because hatred will continue to grow among the homeland’s Muslims. Most may react moderately but it takes just a few angry persons to cause and continue carnage.
Such persons wear suicide belts in the name of Islam; they are not much concerned with the traditional Shiite vs. Sunni divide. In this sense, they are more unpredictable and dangerous than terrorists emerging from Shiite or Sunni lands.
This scenario can be prevented if most Americans realize that readiness to use US military power causes frightened opponents to adopt asymmetrical warfare to riposte against superior forces.
It is a small step from there to dirty bombs and biological weapons supplied by vengeance-seekers in the humiliated countries but delivered in suitcases and through the mail inside America and Europe by homegrown Muslims.
The differences with Teheran are abysmal but refusing dialogue to avoid potentially massive bloodshed is short-sighted. For instance, Washington sees its stand against Iran as a step towards nuclear non-proliferation. Iran’s leaders see this as an attempt to keep their country technologically handicapped.
Washington is promoting democracy and open markets as the most effective foundations for peace, prosperity and human freedoms. Iran’s leaders see this discourse as a Trojan horse intended to destabilize the grip of Shiite Islam in its traditional haven and create regime change.
Whatever our opinions about the worth or folly of Iranian views, this is what we have to work with, like it or not.
It is true that Iran’s regime is a threat to Israeli security with or without Hizballah and is a troublemaker in Iraq. It is also likely that Iran wants to be the prime military and political power in its region, superseding Saudi Arabia.
At the same time, most experts say the nuclear threat from Iran is potential not imminent since it is a decade away from making a weapon.
Humiliation of Iran cannot be separated from humiliation of Shiite Islam, since it is a theocracy. Perhaps, Arab Sunnis will rejoice but Shiite Persians and Arabs are unlikely to lie down to be stepped on.
Since nobody can win a conventional war against America, the only alternative for vengeful terrorists would be an asymmetrical war of attrition in the US and European homelands.
Surely, it is unwise to open deliberately this Pandora’s Box in addition to Sunni terrorism, which may intensify because of Al Qaeda’s hatred of America’s continued military footprint in the Middle East.
This article is not an appeal to renounce war as the ultimate means of neutralizing Iran’s ambitions if they really are implacably hostile. It is a request for frank, direct, open-minded and thorough talks first between Washington and Teheran.