On the face of it, at least, this seems to be a top U.S. military official throwing cold water on the heated speculation about an American military attack on Iran:
Military action against Iran would be fraught with risk and would have repercussions across the region, a leading American general conceded.
“Any action militarily is very complicated,” Lt Gen Victor Renuart, the director of planning for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told The Daily Telegraph.
“And any action by any country will have second-order effects, and that is a strong case to continue the diplomatic process and make it work.”
His comments are a rare public statement from the US military on what is the most contentious international issue of the day.
The warning was seen as recognition of the threat Tehran poses to shipping in the Gulf and also to America and its allies in Iraq in the event of an attack against Iranian nuclear facilities.
It came as US diplomats prepared for a meeting today with diplomats from Britain, France, Germany, China and Russia to discuss the crisis. America wants the United Nations Security Council to step up the pressure on Iran but faces opposition from Beijing and Moscow.
There are several possible ways to interpret this:
- He’s downplaying talk of a military attack because it truly is the course of last resort. In other words: speculation and analysis that the Bush administration’s priority would be “regime change” in Iran rather than a diplomatic solution or containment, was overblown.
- It’s to keep Iran off guard while contingency plans are put into place for a military strike.
- It’s to help create a more hopeful session for the upcoming diplomatic huddles on the Iran problem.
- It’s to calm Beijing and Moscow and reassure them that military action is not taken lightly.
- Any combination of the above.
The Telegraph article also notes that hawks say that diplomacy could take years to show results and by then it might be too late because Tehran could then have a full-fledged nuclear program.
Meanwhile, the paper reports, U.S. UN Ambassador John Bolton says the U.S. is pressing for a new UN resolution — a Chapter 7 which would order Iran to comply and then if it didn’t, impose sanctions.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.