We here at TMV are going to try and give you some live coverage of the debate.
Final Question: Are we safer that we were before 9/11.
This question seems to be going about as you expected. Both say things are safer but that we have work to do. McCain hits Obama for opposing surge in Iraq, Obama hits Bush and through him McCain on the loss of our standing in the world.
They basically come back to the same things they’ve said throughout the debate, nothing new. Neither side scores a clear hit and neither one makes a big blunder.
Overall I’d call this one a draw, maybe a slight McCain edge but not by much
So the final score ends up as McCain 4 points and Obama 3 points.
A win for McCain but not any form of a knockout. I’m not sure though who this really favors. Obama wins in a sense by not getting blown out on foreign policy issue but McCain wins on the fact that he beat a superior debater. Had this been closer to the election (as in 1980) then I probably would have given the edge to Obama for holding his ground but with more than a month to go before voting I suspect in the long run this particular debate won’t have much long term impact.
I will discuss this in greater detail in another post.
Lehrer says they are tied on time but that they are running over on time overall
7:15-7:25
Seventh Question: What about Russia ?
Obama says that we need to reexamine our policy towards Russia given the events of the last few months and says that you need to get them out of S. Ossetia and also that Ukraine and Georgia need to be protected against future attacks. Says we cannot allow them to become a bully but at the same time we cannot return to an old Cold War policy.
McCain responds by agreeing with what Obama says now but reminds voters of what Obama said right after the attack, about both sides needing to behave. He calls Obama naive on this subject and says that we do sometimes need to be tough with these people. Points out that Putin is real power in Russia and that he is basically just what he was 20 yrs ago, KGB.
He agrees no return to the Cold War but also says that we sometimes need to stand to people like Putin, cites the rallying of former Soviet republics to support Georgia against Russia. Gets into some detail on the policy and intricate alliances in the region.
Obama tries to deny that he said what he said on Georgia, not the best idea when they do have video of him saying what McCain said he did. But I am not sure the average voter will care about these details
One interesting thing about this debate is how close the candidates are on most of the issues, even on Iraq and Afghanistan they mostly disagree on details and not the broad terms.
Obama also points out how Russia and Georgia and the region are important on energy policy and once again comes back to his energy strategy. I wonder why he seems so obsessed with coming back to this on every issue when its not really part of foreign policy debate. He might risk tiring voters of the topic before they get to domestic policy.
I give this question to McCain as he effectively controlled the subject in terms of getting Obama to basically say ‘me too’ on the key issues. He now leads 3.5 points to 2.5 for Obama
7:05-7:15
Sixth Question: What about Iran and nuclear weapons ?
McCain says Iran is a danger and should not be allowed to get nuclear weapons and hits Russia for blocking action in the United Nations. Talks about a need for a “League of Democracies” which presumably would not include Russia. Suggests that they could really impose sanctions on Iran that would have a good effect in stopping them from developing weapons.
Also talks about Iran and their support for insurgency in Iraq. Says we need to stop them from killing our troops and that we need to be strong against them. Suggests that Obama has not been strong enough on this topic.
Obama agrees that Republican Guard in Iran is bad but that his opposition to legislation on this subject was because it would have expanded the war in Iraq. Claims that the war has helped to make Iran stronger. Once again tries to focus everything on the last eight years, which will probably give McCain opening to point out long history of bipartisan policies in the Middle East.
Says that we need to work with Russia and China and then goes into the need for ‘tough talk with these countries’. I think this could give McCain a big opening to remind voters of Obama not wanting any preconditions in these talks.
McCain does in fact hit Obama on this point after fumbling a little over pronouncing Ahmadinejad and cites both Reagan and Nixon as examples of how you need to have preconditions. Says he is willing to talk to anyone but wants to make sure there are some ground rules in place before you talk to them.
Interestingly Obama does not discuss the need for preconditions in talks with other sides but says he would ‘talk with anyone if I thought it was in our best interests.’. He then tries to cite differences between preconditions and preparations ahead of talks. I don’t think this is a very effective response. Voters are already concerned about Obama and his views on rogue nations and he probably could have done things better. He tried to talk about how not talking to the bad guys makes them worse, but did not really say he won’t talk unless reasonable conditions are met.
McCain hits back on this topic pretty well, citing the dangers of North Korea and Iran, saying that you cannot just talk with these people and also that it is wrong to suggest that we are to blame for what these nations have done. Obama responds by again discussing the preparation versus preconditions theory but my instinct is that it won’t satisfy voters.
The end of the question marks a pretty contentious exchange between the two, they don’t say a whole lot but it does add a little spark to the debate which had been fairly tame so far.
Overall I think this was one of McCain’s better questions though just as he did better than he might have on the Iraq war question Obama did a little better here than he could have, he did avoid a real blunder but I don’t think he erased the concerns many voters have so I give this one to McCain.
For those who care, score is now McCain 3, Obama 2.5
6:50-7:05
Fifth Question: Should we send more troops to Afghanistan ?
Obama gets first shot here and says a big yes to more troops, citing the need for more battles against Taliban. He calls for 2-3 more brigades (roughly 1/3 of the Iraq forces). He once again hits on the issue that the real war on terror is in Afghanistan and not in Iraq.
He also cites growing drug trade and the corruption in Pakistan, calls for strong action against the corrupt regime and leaders in Pakistan.
McCain cites our failure during the 1980s to ignore Afghanistan and how it allowed Taliban into power. Then he indirectly hits Obama by saying ‘do not point a gun unless you want to pull the trigger’. Suggests how we have to have some allies in the region and that rejecting Pakistan will drive them further into the radical camp.
This is an effective rejoinder, sort of highlighting the issue of Obama and inexperience without directly saying so. He goes on to discuss how the new leadership in the country needs to succeed. His response here is pretty eloquent and effective, which shows how he can do better when the question is not focused on Iraq.
Obama denies saying he wanted to attack Pakistan but says that he wanted to attack Bin Laden whenever he can regardless of whether or not Pakistan approves. Then says McCain is real warmonger with regard to North Korea and Iran. He then says the hostility towards us by the Pakistani people is because we supported Musharraf (possibly forgetting that President Clinton started that policy).
McCain chides him for this and then points out his long record of opposition to irresponsible troop deployments (citing Reagan policies in Lebanon in the 80’s and Clinton in the 90’s). I was surprised by this but find it is more effective than a more indignant attack against Obama’s claims. He is once again promoting the experience idea without saying so directly.
Both men cite bracelets they have been given by mothers of deceased troops, its pretty much a wash with both of them spouting rhetoric but not really saying too much.
Obama and McCain trade barbs on Afghanistan and the need for it to be the central point of the war. Obama says McCain ignored the war but McCain points out Obama has not done much on the subject even though he is on the committee dealing with it. Chides Obama on the subcommittee issue but I think Obama already won that subject
McCain hit some good points here but Obama was effective in his responses. I would either call this a tie or a weak win by McCain. To the degree I am keeping score that would make it Obama 2.5 points, McCain 2 points.
6:40-6:50
Fourth Questions: What are the lessons of Vietnam (finally an actual foreign policy question in the foreign policy debate)
McCain gets first crack and cites the poor choices after victory in Iraq, the failure to recognize that we hadn’t won the war yet. Praises Gen. Petraeus and says that we will win the war and that our troops will come home soon. Says consequences of defeat would be too bad for us to allow.
Not sure if McCain has a good answer here, the war is very unpopular but he is right that once we are there we had to do something to win.
Obama focuses on the fact that he opposed the war (gee I didn’t know that he opposed the war, why hasn’t he mentioned that before). Goes on to cite all of the problems in Iraq and failure to respond in Afghanistan. Links Bush to McCain on this issue, says he wishes he was wrong for sake of country.
Clearly Obama has an advantage here, but I am not sure that attacking old decision to go to war is good idea. Might have been wiser to go with ‘I opposed the war but we are there now so we need to win but true lesson is to not make mistake again’.
But does score a good point by saying we need to use military wisely and that Bush did not.
McCain has good comeback saying in essence we should not have next president look back at old decision but to make new decision on getting out. Points out Obama admitted he was wrong on the surge. Hits Obama for not having any hearing on the Iraq and NATO issue.
Obama gives a good answer on the reasons for not holding hearings, saying that the full committee handles those issues, not his subcommittee. Once again focuses on original decision to go to war but this time is more effective on citing places where McCain was wrong (a good response to McCain saying he was right on surge and Obama was wrong).
McCain comes back with comment on how the story is now good in Iraq and that we need to apply same success in Afghanistan and hits Obama for voting to cut funding to troops. This is another technical and procedural kind of question but just as the committee issue went to Obama I give this one to McCain. Too many echoes of Kerry 2004 with the “I supported it but didn’t” theme.
Obama then summarizes how he plans to get out of Iraq. It’s a packaged answer that I’ve seen in other speeches but he delivers it very effectively and, since it’s the last part of the question to be answered, it really gives him an edge. A few more moments of back and forth do not give McCain any extra foothold
Overall I have to give this question to Obama as he effectively tied things together but I give McCain credit for not tanking totally here given the hard position he is in. Still Obama comes out ahead. By my admittedly non expert count he wins 2 questions so far, McCain 1, a tie on the first. So that gives Obama 2.5 points and McCain 1.5
6:30-6:40
Third Question: How will the bailout hurt your plans for the future and your proposals?
Obama concedes that things may have to be changes but avoids specifics saying he doesn’t know the details yet. I wonder if this tendency to say ‘I can’t comment on that until I have more details’ will eventually hurt Obama or if the voters accept his need for more information.
He then says he will continue his plans on energy independence, health care reform and education reform as well as rebuilding on infrastructure. I wonder if McCain will hit him on the fact that he seems to be proposing all of his programs which would be difficult given the cost of the bailout.
McCain comes back to spending cuts and also hits Obama for being too liberal, saying it is hard to reach across the aisle when you are so far to one side. He then says he would cut ethanol subsidies (goodbye to Iowa in November ?). He then says that contracts need to be reviewed, coming back to the old $ 1000 hammer argument.
So far he seems to me to be doing a little better in saying that spending will need to be cut though he hasn’t gotten too specific on what programs to cut (beyond the above two ideas). This is of course usually the problem with spending cuts, deciding what to cut back.
Lehrer hits them both for not proposing specific cuts.
Obama responds with the same basic response, saying that we need energy independence. Agrees with McCain that we need to have cuts and cites problems with government $$ to private insurance companies via Medicare. Is this a back door way to nationalized health care ?
Responds to liberal comment by saying it is just opposition to Bush and that he has worked with conservatives.
Lehrer hits them again saying One of you will be President, and (in slightly more polite terms) what in the hell are you going to do ?
McCain suggests spending freeze but exempts defense, veterans and entitlements.
Obama rejects, saying some programs need spending increases and that we need to dump Iraq.
McCain says if we want energy independence we need to not only develop programs for future but also use what we have now including nuclear power. This won’t help him with the left but they wouldn’t support him anyway.
Lehrer still not happy, saying they are basically dancing around question (and he’s right). Asks them both to admit that the bailout will affect their budgets.
Both men agree. Obama cites FDR buying back houses during depression, not sure if that was a good idea given the Biden blunder on FDR recently. But probably won’t hurt him. Obama says revenues likely to drop so he will have to make tough decisions but that we need to have proper priorities.
McCain says basically the same thing but with a little more focus on spending cuts and less on increases in some areas.
Given that the basic premise of the question was the need to cut spending and since McCain responded slightly more directly to the issue than Obama I give this question to him. Neither hit a home run but I think he did a little better
(For those keeping track that is 1.5 for Obama, 1.5 for McCain)
6:15-6:30 pm
Second Question: Are there fundamental differences between your two approaches to crisis and economic policy. McCain gets first reply here.
McCain says we need to get spending under control and reduce deficits. Complains about massive spending increases (a bit of a veiled attack on Bush). Condemns GOP for being changed by Washington (trying to remain agent of change). Talks about problems of earmarks.
McCain vows to veto all pork barrel spending (which every candidate has done for decades). Hits Obama for supporting earmarks and his pork barrel projects.
Obama agrees pork barrel and spending is out of control but says it is all the fault of the Republicans (I think this is a bit risky too since it is pretty clear that both sides do this). Says that he has stopped asking for any earmarks for his state.
But he then effectively charges McCain has tax cuts ‘for the rich’ that are far more expensive than earmarks. You can debate how many cuts are for middle class versus rich but the tag line is going to resonate with voters
Obama then again says “McCain is Bush/Bush is McCain”
McCain comes back saying that Obama did not stop earmarks until he ran for President. Talks about how he has a much longer history of blocking earmarks and being the ‘sheriff in town’ on this subject.
Says that raising taxes during economic troubles (per Obama plans) is bad. Obama chimes in saying that McCain is wrong on the figures and that he supports cuts for 95% of families and minor increases on most wealthy. Claims McCain wants to only help the rich/etc.
Lehrer tells McCain to respond directly to Obama.
McCain cites business tax as being way too high and discouraging to businesses. Also says earmarks are way out of control and chides him for thinking $ 18 billion is small amount (this is a pretty good comeback). Obama responds by discussing his tax plan and giving some specifics on how unless you make a 6 figure income you won’t see an increase. I’ve heard mixed comments on if this is true or not but its another effective talking point to the viewer.
Obama then talks about how loopholes make business tax much lower than McCain claims and hits McCain for planning to raise taxes on health care. McCain comes back with comments on energy bill but fails to respond to the comments regarding taxing health care.
They then trade back and forth a bit on the details of their tax plans but the subject gets a bit bogged down in numbers and figures. McCain still does not challenge the comments on health care tax.
With the health care tax comments I give this question to Obama. So he has 1.5 points to 0.5 for McCain
6pm-6:15pm
Standard opening and introductions.
First question is about the global bailout plan.
Obama starts with stock ‘thank you to everyone’ statement and then gives a good but fairly stock answer about pain on both Wall Street and Main Street, the need to make sure the plan does not help the corporate executives who abused the system. Gets in a political hit by blaming the problem on Bush and McCain. A good red meat bit for his supporters but perhaps risky since there are plenty of dirty hands on the Democratic and Republican sides here
McCain starts with a different tack, mentioning Senator Kennedy being in the hospital. Then talks about how there is a big crisis that needs to be resolved. Uses Churchill line about not the beginning of the end but the end of the beginning.
Neither side gave a clear answer and Lehrer calls them on it.
Obama responds by citing his own efforts to stop the crisis but doesn’t entirely answer the question of his position on the plan but rather says ‘we don’t know the details yet’. Then goes in to another ‘It is all Bush’s fault’ comment.
McCain does at least say he will vote for the plan but doesn’t seem to go much further then responds to Obama comments by saying he also warned about the pending crisis. Then cites Eisenhower and his willingness to take the blame had Normandy failed, then goes into comment about how we no longer hold people accountable. As with Obama a good red meat/tag line comment but not directly answering question.
Obama responds by attacking McCain for saying economy is strong. Lehrer tells him to talk to McCain directly, a few moments of quips between the three.
Obama now comes back to how the average people are hurting and not just Wall Street.
Lehrer challenges McCain to respond directly to Obama’s comments, does he agree or not.
McCain responds with a generic answer about how great the American people and workers are.
(So far neither seems to be saying very much but then that is what debates are like these days)
Question 1 seems to pretty much be a draw, neither man got in a big hit and neither made a blunder. So they each have 0.5 points so far.