Historic Tidbit: 1958 was a very Democratic year nationwide. In fact, only one Democratic member of Congress lost her seat. It was Congresswoman Coya Knutson of Minnesota. Her husband had written a famous”Coya Come Home”letter to local newspapers asking her to make his breakfast again. Knutson,the first female Congressperson from Minnesota did go home,but managed to get the house to herself soon after. The two divorced in 1961.
Yesterday’s retirement announcement by Michigan Senator Carl Levin will mean a cacophony of candidates on both sides vying to succeed him.Next year will only be the 2nd time since 1976 that a Senate seat came open (Don Riegel retired in 1994), which means a farm team of folks in both parties have an opening for a long sought after promotion.
First for the national landscape. Levin’s retirement leaves the Democrats with four open seats at this point, with two more — Illinois and South Dakota, very likely to follow (Republicans have two seats open). While Democrats would rather have spent the money it’ll take to hold Levin’s seat defending other states, holding it shouldn’t be a major headache. But that doesn’t mean they’ll be able to skate.
One reason is history.
Only one Republican has won a Senate seat in Michigan since Bob Griffin in 1972, and Spencer Abraham, who had the good fortune of running in ’94, lost it after one term.Debbie Stabenow, who will become the Wolverine State’s senior Senator upon Levin’s retirement, beat him in 2000.
For the Democrats,Congressman Gary Peters will likely have right of first refusal,though Michigan Ds may prefer (and he may at least entertain)a bid to challenge vulnerable Governor Rick Snyder. Either way,Michigan-14, a majority-minority area which Peters successfully ousted a fellow incumbent, will likely be open.
Some Democrats mention ex-Governor Jennifer Granholm and while she was an ardent defender of Michigan, her approvals upon leaving office were abysmal. It’s unlikely national Democrats will want to gamble on her, and she may be in line for a future Obama administration appointment in any case.
Other possible Democrats: State Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer and term-limited State Senator Barb Byrum, though Whitmer recently declined to run for Governor because of the time it would take from her family, so the odds of applying for a job in Washington DC are probably less promising.
Then there is a dark horse. I’ll admit this is mere speculation on my part but given the recent emphasis on women, it’s not implausible. Or at least, it shouldn’t be.
Last year, Lisa Brown, a Michigan State Representative was barred speaking on the from House floor after using “v” word. Because her district had been carved up in redistricting, she wasn’t using the word for “victory.” It was a debate on abortion and Brown told lawmakers she appreciated their “interest in my vagina but no means no.” That made her an internet sensation and catapulted her to the nightly news. Brown is now the Oakland County Clerk and Register of Deeds. Oakland has typically been a swing county statewide.
A Brown bid might mirror the excitement surrounding Warren.As the now Massachusetts Senator galvanized affection from consumer groups.Brown would do same on women’s front.Just speculating
For the Republicans, the field is more complicated. Besides their Senate drought, President Obama took the state by handsome margins twice (not particularly struggling either time), so the GOP knows they’ll have to choose someone with broad appeal.
That person is certainly not Peter Hoekstra. Once a bright young Congressman, Hoekstra utterly discredited himself in his race against Stabenow last year. But Congressman Mike Rogers would be a very attractive action. He has proven he knows how to win in Democratic areas. His initial 2000 came in a Lansing based district against colleague Dianne Byrum (Barbara’s daughter). The margin was a mere 111 votes, and went on so long that Byrum didn’t concede until two days after Al Gore. Rogers has never faced a serious threat since, though he has been twice aided by the GOP legislature shoring him up.
Ex-Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land will also look at the race, as the GOP asked her to do for both the open Governor’s seat in ’10 and against Stabenow ion ’12. A woman is not a requirement, but probably would be a plus.
One woman that likely won’t be is Land’s predecessor as secretary of State, Candice Miller. She’ll certainly consider running but has a history of being cautious. GOP polls had her ahead of 12-term Congressman Dave Bonior in 2000 but she didn’t take the bait.She instead waited for the creation of a Macomb County district she couldn’t lose, and called herself a “George Bush Republican”(imagine the ads).10 years later,think Miller would be hurt by admonishment by Ethics Committee for attempting to bribe Nick Smith on prescription.drug vote.
The question is whether sophomore Congressman Justin Amash will run and that will have repercussions for the Republican. It’s not so much that Amash can win the Senate race, but he could prevail in a split primary (as he did in ’10 when his House seat opened up). Speaking of which, Amash is likely to face a fight next year,but Republican odds in a district Jerry Ford once represented would actually improve without him.