Iraqi president Jalal Talabani’s PUK is suggesting that the Kurds may drop the demand that eventual independence be addressed in the constitution, something that’s opposed by both Shi’ite and Sunni lawmakers. The Shi’a want some sort of handle on Kurdish oil wealth, depending on where Kirkuk ends up falling. Eventual independence would also destabilize the region and make Iran more than a bit antsy. It’s no surprise that the Sunni who are anti-federalism are also anti-Kurdish secession.
Basically, this isn’t anything amazing. If the Kurds drop the demand that eventual secession be discussed in the constitution they will simply bring it up again at a later date. They’ll have to, because it’s doubtful Kurdistan Democratic Party leader Masoud Barzani, let alone the vast majority of Kurds, is at all interested in dropping independence completely. Talabani’s PUK understands that and is also aware that pushing the issue at the constitutional level could de-rail the process, even if there are numerous other apparent problems with the process including disagreement over sha’ria and basic federalism. If the PUK decides to drop the demand for secession language, it’ll be easier to blame the Sunnis for holding the process up by not making their own concessions. By dropping secession, the Kurds can align themselves with the pro-autonomy south Shi’a on the constitutional committee and in the Assembly and make it even more difficult for the Sunnis to stop basic federalism.
Despite federalism/future Kurdish secession, what about women’s rights, oil wealth sharing, Kirkuk, and the fate of independent party militias? Psssh, who knows? And that’s not promising.
Cross-posted from Digital Dissent