Cross-posted to Digital Dissent
I’d say, “fat chance”, but I’m willing to give him a shot. From CNN:
Kim said “the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula was the behest of President Kim Il Sung,” his late father and the North’s longtime former leader, the North’s Korean Central News Agency reported on Wednesday.
According to the report, the reclusive leader said it was Pyongyang’s “consistent stand to seek a negotiated peaceful solution of the nuclear issue,” and he hoped “positive progress” would be made at the talks.
Scepticism is and should be extremely high. It’s difficult not to drag the Agreed Framework of 1994 back into this, even if it did delay North Korea’s nuclear production, because it acted in large part as a shield in which Kim hid behind while his scientists resumed nuclear development. Any agreements, should they be reached, have to have a serious built-in trigger for punishment should Kim renege once again. One way to gauge how serious Kim is about all this is to look at recent, visible nuclear reactor development, on which there has been some disagreement. The Japanese Nihon Keizai has reported, utilizing US intelligence sources (which is important to note), that construction at the Yongbyon and Taechon reactors resumed recently, although this rollover image from GlobalSecurity.org (via ArmsControlWonk) suggests otherwise. So, that may be good news, although the exact number and locations of North Korea’s nuclear facilities — most development most likely taking place underground — is an unknown.
None of this suggests, however, that Kim’s latest and rare foray into the spotlight should not be seen as an optimistic sign. It’s much better than the old rhetoric of turning Japan into a “sea of fire.” With Kim’s softened tone comes some serious carrots being offered by way of South Korea, including a 2 million kilowat power transfer and 500,000 tons of food aid. The upcoming talks will start at modern high point in relations between North Korea, its neighbors, and the US, and that cannot be squandered. Let’s play this out, see what happens, and then go from there.