The Donald was smashed in Wisconsin by Ted Cruz, 48 percent to 35 percent, in the recent Republican primary, conservatism trumping populism. Or was it conservatism trumping demagoguery? The only problem with that thesis is that Cruz was the winner, merely a more conservative demagogue, and a less nasty demagogue (but not by much), than The Donald. The only rational player in the Republican primary in Wisconsin, John Kasich, was left (excuse me for using that word) far behind in the voting with only 14 percent. What is wrong with the Republicans? The base may be angry, but do they need the vitriol, hatred, bigotry, and anti-government rhetoric that seem to flow continuously out of the mouths of Trump and Cruz, while Kasich seems to be rational.
No, The Donald is not in the rear view mirror yet. He still is by far the leader in delegates and the northeastern states have not voted yet, a region that should favor Trump over Cruz. However, his pounding in Wisconsin certainly is a reminder of his vulnerability, and perhaps his insults to women and minorities and his cumulative gaffes are starting to catch up to him. Women in particular seem to loathe The Donald and refuse to support him. And many of those who did not vote for The Donald voiced their concerns over his candidacy, saying that they would vote for Hillary, or a third party candidate, or stay home, if Trump was the nominee.
Has there ever been a candidate so contentious, or who generated such emotional heat for and against him as The Donald? But remember that he is still far ahead in the delegate count and will likely remain so when the GOP convention opens in Cleveland. However, unless The Donald has a tremendous surge of voters coming to his rescue in the upcoming primaries, he will not have enough delegates to corral the nomination. Neither will Cruz. An open convention appears to be in the offing if The Donald does not win on the first ballot. A brokered convention. What happens then? Will the Republican establishment take control of the nominating process?
It is likely that many of the delegates will switch horses and back someone else on succeeding ballots. The question is whether that will be Cruz, Kasich, or an entirely new candidate who has not been campaigning- a savior for the Party riding in on a white horse wearing a white hat. (But will the GOP rules committee eliminate the requirement for a candidate to have won at least eight states to get the nomination? Because that only leaves The Donald or Cruz as possible nominees.)
Though The Donald remains in the lead, the novelty of a foul-mouthed, tell-it-as-it-is, populist, television-celebrity deal-maker as a presidential candidate may be wearing off. But if the convention rejects him, will The Donald go quietly? Is he still considering a possible race as a third party candidate if the convention does not hand him the nomination? Does his narcissism and self-glorification prevent him from a realistic view of his chances if he runs on a third party ticket? Is it even doable at such a late date after the convention? Whatever happens, it is unlikely that The Donald will go quietly, disappearing in the distance and returning to a life of deal-making and womanizing. He likes the public adulation and the spotlight too much.
So whether or not his poll numbers are dropping and his backers are starting to back off, The Donald is not finished yet. This showman must have a few tricks up his sleeve that he hasn’t pulled out yet, waiting to use them when necessary. As he has told us many times, The Donald is a winner and will find a way to emerge victorious when the pundits have him starting to slip. If you don’t believe The Donald can do it, just ask him. (Unfortunately, the alternative in Cruz may be an even worse choice.) It should be an interesting convention.
Resurrecting Democracy
www.robertlevinebooks.com
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Political junkie, Vietnam vet, neurologist- three books on aging and dementia. Book on health care reform in 2009- Shock Therapy for the American Health Care System. Book on the need for a centrist third party- Resurrecting Democracy- A Citizen’s Call for a Centrist Third Party published in 2011. Aging Wisely, published in August 2014 by Rowman and Littlefield. Latest book- The Uninformed Voter published May 2020