Several stories have come out now that have run counter to the conventional wisdom several years ago that there would be a Bush Dynasty — that Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is a natural to get the Republican Party presidential nomination when he wants it (providing it isn’t this year) and coast his way into the White House.
Under the new conventional wisdom (which can be outdated as fast as the previous conventional wisdom…get it?) JB is now damaged goods and may never get there.
Under this view when President George W. Bush said Jeb would make an “awfully good” President it may have warmed some on the right’s hearts, but was otherwise The Kiss of Death.
The latest obituary on Jeb’s chances comes from The Telegraph:
He is a popular governor of a pivotal southern state, who has impressed with his leadership of hurricane relief efforts, is a charismatic speaker and a renowned policy expert – and is steeped in political campaigning.
Normally, such attributes and qualifications, along with his small government, libertarian brand of conservatism, would make him a front runner for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008.
But the governor of Florida, who has a popularity rating of 63 per cent in his home state, has one disadvantage that overshadows everything else – his surname is Bush.
Many Republicans fear that Jeb Bush, the younger brother of President George W Bush, whose approval ratings hover around a miserable 30 per cent, may never enter the White House because of a family name that has become more curse than blessing.
The Telegraph notes that many Republicans are putting distance between themselves and GWB, as if the President had bird flu:
Candidates in the November mid-term elections, in which Republicans face a tough battle to maintain their grip on the Senate and the House of Representatives, have already taken note that linkage with President Bush might not be an asset.
During the 2002 congressional election campaign, when President Bush was riding high in the polls, even Democrats ran campaign advertisements citing their close links with him on the issue of national security.
This year, they are attacking their Republican opponents for being too close to Mr Bush. And, aware of the damage that a single photo opportunity with President Bush could do to them, Republican candidates are going to some lengths to avoid being seen with America’s commander-in-chief.
They give several high profile examples of politicos that are stayin g away and offer this truly devastating quote:
An aide to Judy Baar Topinka, running for the governorship of Illinois, said that a visit from the president would be welcome only “late at night, in an undisclosed location”.
And then there’s this:
Republicans point out that Jeb Bush could run for the White House in 2012 or 2016 when his brother’s bad poll numbers would be a distant memory.
There are signs, however, that Americans could be tiring of political dynasties, particularly if they are perceived as failed ones. Jeb Bush may now have to settle for being hailed as one of the best presidents America never had.
The problem with the Bush family as a dynasty is that it seems as if the two Bush Presidents wound up being popular mostly with Republican partisans. Both showed an inability to reach out and create the kind of broad-based coalition that could make a White House win based on a nostalgia based on even a faulty memory possible.
Unless something changes (for instance, the death of terrorist bigwig Zarqawi driving Bush’s numbers significantly up), the two Bushes will likely be known as Presidents who lacked charisma, made bold if sometimes flawed choices and governed during troubled times with hideously low popularity.
Jeb Bush can change that if he gets into some kind of position to prove he’s a different species of Bush. He has high popularity ratings in Florida. But he also has some baggage among independent voters that he’d have to shed.
A political dynasty suggests a family having an in-place political machine comprised of highly loyal militants, some kind of charisma (even in terms of political clout), name recognition that is helpful at the polls, and aspects that make voters want to continue what once was.
2012 and 2016 can be more than a lifetime in politics: it can be the equivalent of actress Shirley MacLaine’s many lives.
More likely than not, Jeb Bush can win the GOP nomination in the not-too-close future but he’ll have to do it like everyone else: by selling his political soul to interest and political groups, undermining and driving up the negatives of opponents and clawing his way to the top of the heap by convention time.
That’s the American way.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.