Over the past week, a startling number of conservative Republicans have been making a public case for the House of Representatives to back legal status for undocumented immigrants. They would like to see that as part of a broader package of immigration reform measures of which getting to the house floor is half the battle. You’ll pardon my cynicism but I must wonder if that’s a reflection of Obamacare doing so well. Follow me.
First off, I use the term “startling” not because it is the wrong direction — in fact I find the development to be positive and long over due. But the names of people at the forefront are not folks one would necessarily expect to see leading the charge. And that by itself cannot go unnoticed.
Illinoisans Aaron Schock and Adam Kinzinger are two of the key players and they typify today’s Republican. At 33 and 36 respectively, both are among the youngest members in their conference (by contrast, Texan Ralph Hall at 91 is old enough to be their grandfather). But more importantly, both are strong GOP loyalists who espouse much of the party’s platform. In fact, Kinzinger’s last two bids enjoyed strong backing by the Tea-Party movement while Schock is close to leadership. Nevertheless, their has created “Schock” and awe over expectations that 2014 may finally be the year of enactment.
And late last week, former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert, you know, the man who came up with the rule of not putting something to a vote unless the majority of the majority supports it, attended a gathering among who’s who of Illinois Republicans urging the House to take action. “There’s a lot of folks that came here that aren’t under documentation and they need to be a part of this nation,” Hastert said. “We need to be able to give them legitimacy.”
But back to Schock and Kinzinger since they’re the ones who actually have a vote on what has been the 800 pound elephant among elephants in the Republican room.
Schock spoke of the positive effects immigration, document or not, has on the employment system. In noting that it’s been nearly three decades since Congress last took significant action” as it relates to unemployment, he said, “Quite frankly, I think if a man or a woman likes their American job, wherever they were born, they should be able to keep that job. We need a clear path to citizenship for workers who are already here and a fair and efficient on-ramp for those who want to come here.” He also called it “long enough” that some have been waiting ten years for permanent status.
One can’t help but react in awe at Schock’s “quite frankly” comment because, quite frankly, I think that’s the first time virtually any member of the rank and file House GOP has been so direct on immigration. But I’ll save my potshots about the GOP motives for later. Okay, long enough.
Therein lies the possibility of hidden motives for the immigration positioning and the fall elections? Is that the case? Could be. While both Schock and Kinzinger are safe in their own re-elections, they may be thinking about their party’s prospects. And that’s where the relationship to Obamacare might come in.
I had written extensively that as the election drew nearer, the Republican Party might want to revisit their stance on immigration reform. I’m wondering if a House majority, however small, that openly resisted this for so long are suddenly embracing it in baby steps because of Obamacare.
Republicans were hoping to glide into the White House by the specter of the program’s failures and seemed to be forced to little but sit back and glide. But now, there’s been a dramatic turn in direction and it’s not to the GOP’s benefit.
March 31 came and went and the Obamacare expectations amazed everyone in the administration. The seven million enrollment projection that at one point seemed destined to fall woefully short, rose above eight million. Of that number, 35% are “young” Americans and estimates are that 80% of early premiums have been paid, a must for the fundamentals to prove successful.
For the administration, that would mean the woeful rollout of ACA in October, while still a complete and utter embarrassment, would fade farther away from people’s memories. Of course, there is a chance that the scores of cancellation notices and premium hikes that hit thousands of Americans last year (that is despite the “if you like your plan you can keep it”would occur but that’s in no way guaranteed. So Republicans could not even count on using that to guarantee success.
The failure of ACA was a must for the electoral fortunes of a GOP whose image is lower than Democrats. That’s where immigration came in. Many in the right wing, despite at least some political benefits,do not want to pursue it and they wee hoping failure of ACA would make them not have to.
Immigration reform would still give the Democrats the advantage this year, if only because a Democratic president would be the person signing it. But it would certainly stop the bleeding and may even change the dynamic for the Presidential race.
This issue has been at a stand-still for nearly five years since the Senate was unable to cut off a filibuster on the “Dream Act,” (moderates from both parties took part). Now, the Senate has acted but the House, increasingly dominated by Tea-Party backed Republicans, has refused to move. Speaker Boehner has sent mixed signals.
Which brings me to my final point. It’s one thing to signify an intention of voting “yes” on a bill but quite another to have a bill to be voted on.Knowing where Schock and Kinzinger stand is one thing but will they be able to persuade fellow members to back it if and when it comes to a vote. And if that fails, will they take part in the negotiations to produce a new plan?
And yes, there are reasons involving legacy to move on this as much as policy.
For the first 16 months of its existence, the 114th Congress has borne the stench of being a “Do-Nothing” body, lest one counts a 16 day shutdown. There are only eight months remaining. Passing immigration reform at this point would not entirely reverse that, but it might make its record in the history books a little kinder. And for Republicans, as far as this and future elections, the politics would take care of itself.