To read Howard Wolfson this morning, one would think that we should start packing things up here at TMV and preparing to launch our new online endeavor in recipe-sharing for Icelandic food enthusiasts. Given the continual sag in McCain-Palin poll numbers and the seemingly desperate nature of Big Mac’s decision to send his running mate out calling Obama a terrorist buddy, it’s easy to understand how some on the Left may be riding a tide of optimism.
Perpetually fretting Democrats will not want to accept it. The campaigns themselves can’t afford to believe it. Many journalists know it but can’t say it. And there will certainly be some twists and turns along the way. But take it to a well capitalized bank: Bill Ayers isn’t going to save John McCain. The race is over.
Even the reliable James Joyner, while certainly not a supporter of the Democrats, seems to see reason for confidence on the part of Obama supporters.
Howard Wolfson is almost surely right that “Bill Ayers Won’t Save John McCain.” Unless there’s far, far more to the association than we’ve seen, it’s a non-story that’s already been absorbed into the current polls.
I must say, with sites like 538 currently projecting Obama to blow McCain out in the electoral college by a margin of 340 to 198, this is almost breathtaking to behold. I’ve rarely seen a team doing so much end zone celebrating in a game where there is still at least five minutes to go in the fourth quarter and they are barely ahead by a touchdown. This is not to say that I believe Wolfson and others are fundamentally wrong. Obama may well still march on to victory. I agree that this attempt to shift the focus to William Ayers is nearly as desperate as having McCain begin his opening statements on Tuesday night by saying, “This is not a time to turn the country over to somebody who used to snort cocaine off the naked buttocks of Larry Sinclaire in limos.”
But it is also worth remembering that John McCain was up in the polls only a couple of weeks ago. American politics can and does turn on a dime and few are prescient enough to predict when and where those coins will fall. There is still nearly a month to go, and in political time that may as well be a century. Swings states tend to swing, and, like any good pendulum, what goes one way should not surprise any of us if it turns around and heads back in the other direction. While the Obama inaugural celebrations are being planned, I would remind his supporters about the rule regarding counting chickens before beaks are visible. Congratulations to you if you prevail, but you’ll excuse me if I don’t order my inaugural ball tickets just yet.