There are more signs that Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld could be a kind of political anchor around the Bush White House’s and the GOP Congress’ necks this election year.
And it raises the question: despite official smiles, handshakes, and declarations of loyalty, is Rumsfeld’s political goose cooked or not?
Will he join the list of other administration members who were said to be secure in their positions but within X amount of time left for a new challenge, to spend more time with their families, etc. etc.?
Or has this now become a symbolic power struggle for President George Bush, where no matter what he won’t give in because he wants to show he is “the decider”?
There were new indications yesterday that Rumsfeld is certainly not doing his boss any political good by remaining on the job. For instance:
–An 8th general (see video) has now said he wants to see Rummy go.
–The six generals who previously called on Rumsfeld to resign could be invited to testify at Senate hearings.
–Rumsfeld is doing some fence-mending of his own which he wouldn’t do if he didn’t feel it was necessary to do it:
ABC News has learned that Rumsfeld will be on Capitol Hill Tuesday morning for a private meeting with senior Republican senators, including Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist. It will be a chance for Rumsfeld to shore up his support among those he is counting on to defend his record.
The Chicago Tribune also points to Rumsfeld’s record as a survivor — and having friends in the right places. President Gerald Ford picked Rumsfeld to run his staff and Rumsfeld brought in a man named Dick Cheney to help him out.
Rumsfeld flirted with the idea of running for the White House himself in 1980 and again in 1988, but he never launched a formal campaign. “He had all the other A-plus characteristics, but there was a lack of a common touch that was missing,” Ford said in an interview a couple of years ago.
Rumsfeld remained in the circles of power, though, helping Ronald Reagan negotiate with Saddam Hussein. While most today would see him as decidedly conservative, that was not always the case.
He was a “glad-handing, pragmatic politician, equally comfortable with his patron, the liberal Nixon, and the conservative Reagan,” former Sen. Adlai Stevenson III once said. “He could arm Hussein under Reagan and attack him under Bush, always [with] a smile, likable and–in the past at least–extremely flexible. … He acquired whatever the necessary coloration was.”
Donald Rumsfeld could, in fact, survive.
But the conservative news magazine Insight reports that some prominent GOPers in Congress want Rumsfeld out since they fear his continuation in office could mean political consequences:
Several prominent Republicans in the House and Senate have urged President Bush to replace Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld as part of an administration shakeup.
GOP sources said many in the congressional leadership have warned that growing opposition against Mr. Rumsfeld could result in the loss of the Republican Party’s majority in the 2006 elections. They said Mr. Rumsfeld has become the lightning rod for the public discontent with the administration.
“The leadership wants a sacrifice to show the American people that the president is listening to them on Iraq,” a leadership source said. “The most obvious choice is Rumsfeld.”
The sources reported increasing estrangement between Mr. Rumsfeld and most of the GOP leadership. They said the defense secretary has been blamed for the rising casualties in Iraq, the huge budget deficit as well as deteriorating relations with Congress.
That almost sounds as if it’s the point of no return. AND:
Sources close to the GOP leadership said Mr. Rumsfeld would certainly be a key issue in the congressional campaign. They said Democrats would cite criticism by retired generals of Mr. Rumsfeld’s handling of the Iraq war.
“Do I think someone else would do a better job, and if someone else would do a better job, does it help me?” Rep. Christopher Shays, a Connecticut Republican who has criticized the conduct of the war, asked. “Of course it would.”
One scenario raised by some in the GOP leadership was that Mr. Rumsfeld and several other Cabinet ministers offer their resignations as part of the current administration shakeup. Over the past week, White House press secretary Scott McClellan has resigned and Deputy Chief of Staff Karl Rove has agreed to a role with reduced authority.
But the sources said the White House plans to hold on to Mr. Rumsfeld despite the pressure from the leadership. They said Mr. Bush feels that kicking out Mr. Rumsfeld would mean “open season” on the administration.
This suggests one of several things could happen:
- George Bush could simply stick it out with Donald Rumsfeld, figuring the controversies would eventually die out due the attention deficit media re-focusing on other hot stories — like the likely announcement within days that Fox News anchor Tony Snow will become the new White House press secretary. You can figure that Snow’s ascension to that job will gobble up a certain amount of
front-page space and broadcast airtime as people contrast the smooth Snow with the sweating McClellan. Likely scenario. Net impact: Rumsfeld will remain a political albatross around the GOP’s neck. - Rumsfeld will go in the near future. Unlikely. Bush does not want to be seen as caving in.
- Rumsfeld will not finish out his term. Extremely likely. After a certain amount of time has passed, it’s likely Rumsfeld will leave the administration with some logical explanation — but leave at a time when it won’t appear as if Bush’s military and political critics have “won” by forcing Rumsfeld out.
In the meantime? More retired generals could come out against Rumsfeld, and his every move will be painstakingly reviewed by the news media.
In short: Rumsfeld could stay in office but he’ll twist slowly, slowly in the wind…
UPDATE: For a MUST READ go to the Atlantic Review‘s post “Are the revolting ret. generals feeling guilty?”
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.