Since Tuesday’s election — generally seen as a debacle for the GOP in general and President George W. Bush in particular — there have been a host of articles suggesting that a resurgence of the political center is underway in American politics. And indeed, it would seem that a backlash may be underway against base-oriented and polarization politics.
The latest, perhaps bluntest, assessment comes from the Washington Post’s David Ignatius who, in a piece titled “Rise of the Center,: makes the case that the technique of polarizing issues by just appealing to a party’s base may be serving as a kind of Viagra for the center:
With Tuesday’s elections, you could sense a small shift in the polarities that have been tugging Republicans and Democrats toward their bases. All of a sudden the center doesn’t look quite so lonely or inhospitable. In fact, it may be regaining its status as the commanding heights of American politics.
That’s the message I take from the victories of moderate Democrat Timothy Kaine in red-state Virginia and moderate Republican Michael Bloomberg in blue-state New York City. These are isolated events and can be explained in part by local factors, but there’s evidence that they’re part of a larger trend: The American public may finally be getting fed up with partisan politics, enough so that it will reward politicians who refuse to play that game and instead campaign from the middle. In that sense, Tuesday’s results may have been a harbinger for the emerging governing majority I like to call the “party of performance.”
Agreed. We meet many people who are truly fed up with spin from the left and right and want to see issues discussed and problems solved with as little political posturing and demonization as possible. Of course, if you take that position then chances are you’ll be demonized. But more and more people are taking a stand — and it sounds like voters are as well. AND:
Here’s a prediction: The important political battles of the next several years will be over which party commands this high ground of the center — and offers solutions to the problems that worry the country. Right now neither Republicans nor Democrats can lay coherent claim to being that party of performance. They are both still captives of the old conventional wisdom that the route to victory passes through the base — the true believers on the right and left wings who are the activists in both parties. That logic works until the big majority in the middle finally says: Enough!
I think we’re nearing that “mad as hell” moment. President Bush’s approval ratings keep hitting new lows because of public anger over Iraq, gas prices, the economy and the ethics mess in Washington. An average of polls posted yesterday by the Web site RealClearPolitics.com showed Bush’s composite approval rating at just 38.4 percent.
There are several reasons why what he writes make sense, and here are just two of them:
- If you read American history, there have been shifts in parties and ideological dominance throughout it. If the center is becoming stronger, it will likely be seen as due to conservative overreaching and administration hubris.
- There is a strong case that can be and has been made that there IS a kind of BORDER in American politics. Call it the middle, center, the mainstream — whatever. But most often than not, politicians and parties that go beyond it (not always though) face consequences. We refer ALL readers of the left, center and right to John Avlon’s Independent Nation which documents it in a highly readable style. If you read his book you have to conclude: Bush and the GOP have pushed the envelope and perhaps the envelope has finally broken.
Throughout history, when some Presidents got in trouble they made major changes, shifted gears, shook up their administration by making substantive staff changes (not just musical chairs), and even brought in one or two people from the other party (genuinely respected members of the other party versus members were were known to blast their own party). Can we expect this from GWB?
Where is President Bush in this shifting political landscape? The unfortunate reality for the White House is that it may not matter much. Bush has never seemed interested in trying to shape a new political center, focusing instead on his conservative base. Now that process is beginning to animate both parties, while the president broods over his troubles.
If Bush rebounds and succeeds without changes, he will likely be judged as having had ushered in a new conservative era. If he doesn’t, it’ll probably be said his fatal flaw was his inability to adapt, expand his coalition and aggregate interests — which, if it happens, will be ironic since, as Governor of Texas, he enjoyed the reputation of being someone who masterfully courted and worked with everyone. But Washington can change people.