From the indispensible website Watching America, comes a translation of a piece that ran in the Financial Times‘ German edition by Washington correspondent Thomas Klau. It paints a bleak portrait of the present situation in Iraq, and what’s at stake for the U.S. Part of it:
In light of the developments in Iraq and the political almanac in the U.S., if the Americans hold out for two or three more years, the result of their adventure seems preordained. The Americans will withdraw if the country is not stabilized. American foreign policy would be faced with a debacle, the effects of which could exceed those of the Vietnam War. The ignominious departure from Saigon in 1975 opened a period of American introspection and left Vietnam to the communists. American failure in Iraq could shake fragile borders and power structures all over the Middle East. It would give Islamic fundamentalists the sort of propaganda victory that, five years ago, Osama bin Laden could have only dreamed of.
The exact consequences of a longer civil war or even a collapse in Iraq for countries like Turkey, Jordan, Iran, Egypt or Saudi Arabia cannot be measured. It is clear, however, that America would need years to get over its own failure and to find its way back to the high regard it enjoyed after its victory over the Soviets. It also seems clear who would push its way into the developing leadership vacuum: Such a defeat of America would occur at a time in which the equally ambitious and skilled strategists in China plan to elevate their country to superpower status.
The failure is more devastating still than Napoleon’s defeat in Russia, after a carelessly planned occupation of Spain, 200 years ago. “This calamitous war in Spain was the root of the problem, the main cause of the misfortune that later swept over France,” complained the emperor after he abdicated. The failure of the Iraqi occupation could mean the end of America’s dream of making the 21st century another age of U.S. imperium.
Of course the assumption at the end of this piece is that the United States is, in fact, dreaming on making this century “another age of U.S. imperium” — an assumption that many (in both U.S. political parties) will hotly debate. But the cautionary notes are thought-provoking, and troubling.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.