Alright, folks, back to reality. This election is about the Iraq war. In August General John Abizaid said that Iraq was at risk of falling into civil war. But he held out hope that that wouldn’t happen. He even developed a series of metrics to determine if Iraq was getting more peaceful, or sliding toward chaos. These metrics included militia activity, militant rhetoric from religious officials, ability of Iraqi forces to perform, economic activity, and a few others. Well, according to Michael Gordon of the NY Times, the metrics have shown a country spiraling ever more into chaos, even since August. The chart makes the point clearer:
The John Kerry kerfuffle might be a fun distraction for the media and some GOP partisans, but it’s a sideshow. Remember the old Feaver-Gelpi adage about war support. Americans will support high casualties. Americans will support changing rationales. But Americans will not support losing. I don’t know how this chart shows anything but that we’re losing, badly, in Iraq.
The election should be about changing the course in Iraq. Toward what is hard to say. But the current Congress will do nothing to demand Bush change either personnel or strategy in Iraq. In fact, a GOP victory will embolden Bush to stay the losing course and pass this disaster on to the next President. To quote a recent GOP commercial, these are the stakes.