When engaged in an argument, it’s always wise to understand the other party’s point of view. Not to agree with this view, of course, but as a means to possibly resolve the disagreement in a way that benefits everyone.
With this in mind, here’s some reasons why Iran might think it is both justified and necessary to develop the nuclear weapons that pretty much all objective observers today believe they are actively working to develop, their statements to the contrary not withstanding.
The genesis of nuclear weapon thinking by Iran was very likely the policies of Iraq under Saddam. His early nuclear bomb making efforts were kibboshed by Israel, but many nations (including our own) thought he had restarted them. Since Saddam initiated a war with Iran that cost the Iranians an estimated million dead, it was natural for them to think having their own nuclear deterrent in place to counter a future Iraqi nuclear arsenal might be a prudent measure.
When the U.S. destroyed Saddam’s regime, this threat only appeared (to Iran and many others) to be amplified from another quarter. President Bush’s “axis of evil” speech seemed like a direct threat to Iran at some later date.
Three countries were part of this supposed axis — Iraq, North Korea and Iran. Iraq got invaded, North Korea didn’t. The former didn’t have nukes to defend itself. The latter did. To the Iranians the message could seem clear: have nukes and be safe from attack by the Americans.
The threat of attack by Israel could seem very real indeed to Iran these days. This is one of those chicken-and-eggs situations. Israel thinks it may have to attack Iran to prevent it developing nukes, while Iran thinks the best way to prevent such an attack is to have nukes. Both arguments are silly for all sorts of real world reasons, the two countries being natural allies, which they more or less were while the shah ruled Iran. But the Middle East isn’t the real world as the rest of the world understands reality, so both arguments create intense worries for both parties.
In looking at an Iranian justification for developing nukes, a look at a map shows another very good argument for doing so. Nuclear powers are everywhere in its part of the world. Russia, China, India and Pakistan, the latter actually bordering Iran. One should also not forget (Iran hasn’t) that two of these countries, India and Pakistan, were threatened by the world with grievous retaliation if they developed their own nukes. India and Pakistan did. The world shrugged and accepted.
These are some of the reasons Iran might think it prudent to develop its own nuclear weapons. There’s other reasons at work as well. Iran has invested a great deal of time and effort is this program and now, even if it got a very good deal to stop it, a strong internal constituency’s reputation is at stake. Halting the program now might also make the government seem “weak” at a time when it really has been weakened by a bogus election. Governments don’t like to appear weak.
This, then, is yet another example of the way things often work in world politics. Bad forces now out of date leave a legacy, and responses that are no longer appropriate acquire a life of their own that’s hard to end. Let’s hope the Obama team, which is much more sensible than its predecessor in these matters, can finesse the past and save us all from a host of future problems.