Iowa conservatives are still thinking about it. And thinking…and thinking.
By all accounts — and if you look at the roller-coaster polls over the past few weeks it confirms the anecdotal journalism — the January 3 Iowa caucus date is getting closer and closer and many Republicans in Iowa are more undecided than ever (good news for media types and bloggers…bad news for political campaigns). The AP reports:
Presidential hopeful Mike Huckabee would seem to be the answer to their prayers, yet for many Christian conservatives in Iowa, he has not closed the deal for the Republican caucuses.
Do they still like Mitt Romney? Are they intrigued by Fred Thompson? As always, voter uncertainty comes with the Jan. 3 caucuses, now just a week away.
Huckabee, the former Baptist minister, is leading in the Republican polls here, though his advantage has narrowed. Perhaps, that’s due in part to the negative TV commercials Romney is airing.
“I think I’m leaning toward Governor Huckabee,” says Lori Brown, who works at an accounting firm in Sheldon. “I guess I’m not sure who else I really like. But he seems to be just a real guy. I’m a Christian, too, so I see eye-to-eye with him.
“At this point.”
According to the AP, Huckabee was a big hit on his final campaign swing through Iowa — in terms of many finding him “funny and charming, especially when he borrowed a bass guitar to play “Takin’ Care of Business” in the Sioux City High School auditorium.” Connecting with voters is an important political skill, and Huckabee seems to have it.
But the article also makes it clear Huckabee is having to spend a lot of time responding to criticisms from former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney who is spending lots of money on his own ads, his organization and going after Huckabee on issues such as the Arkansas Governor’s immigration record.
So Huckabee and Romney are battling in the trenches as Jan. 3 approaches.
Meanwhile, actor and former Senator Fred Thompson is still trying to find a deep trench:
Thompson, the “Law & Order” actor and former Tennessee senator, has the most ground to cover because of his late, sluggish entry to the race.
He brought a campaign bus to Iowa for the final two weeks of the campaign, with a short break for Christmas, but he hasn’t spent as much time as Romney or Huckabee in a state where, because of its first-in-the-nation caucuses, voters insist on face time with the candidates.
If people could see him, “I think they would follow right along with him,” says Bob Knowler, the county treasurer in Woodbury County, which includes Sioux City.
Good journalism gives good, solid anecdotal evidence of trends…and the AP gives plenty of it here. But the bottom line is that Thompson miscalculated in entering the race so late — losing his moment when there almost seemed a genuine draft starting among conservatives.
Thompson was the flavor of the month but suddenly a newer flavor (Huckabee) with a longer expiration date (Huckabee is a young 52 and Thompson is a…. “rugged”.. 65) is now on the scene. And on most issues Huckabee is seemingly offering offers voters much of what Thompson would have offered them in terms of political positions (there are some differences).
One thing that various press reports suggest is that Huckabee has a quality that could help shove him to the front-lines of the GOP race. It’s a quality that probably wouldn’t be enough to win him the nomination if conservatives and the GOP establishment go after him (he already has raised the ire of Rush Limbaugh whose positions more often than not do mirror the party establishment elite..): his humor.
Huckabee also seems nice, so nice that people often don’t notice a zinger. Instead of talking about Romney’s privileged upbringing, he says: “You know, growing up a Huckabee didn’t exactly open up all the doors for me as a kid,” he said in Sheldon, describing his hardscrabble upbringing. “It wasn’t like, `Oh, are you of the Huckabees of Hempstead County?'”
FOOTNOTE: Whoever wins Iowa is NOT ensured future victories, particularly this year.
But if Romney loses in Iowa, it will be a huge blow.
If Huckabee wins it’ll be a huge boost.
And if Thompson wins it’ll be a huge surprise.
UPDATE: More bad news for Mitt Romney. Another newspaper in New Hampshire (which votes soon after Iowa) has blasted him…this time the Union Leader. Here’s part of it:
THERE IS A reason Mitt Romney has not received a single newspaper endorsement in New Hampshire. It’s the same reason his poll numbers are dropping. He has not been able to convince the people of this state that he’s the conservative he says he is.
Like a lot of people in New Hampshire, we wanted to believe Romney. We gave him the benefit of the doubt. We listened very carefully to his expertly rehearsed sales pitch. But in the end he didn’t close the deal for us. Now, two weeks before the primary, the same is happening with voters.
Republicans and right-leaning independents in New Hampshire gave Romney a chance. His events have not been sparsely attended. Nor have they been scarce. He’s made more campaign stops here this year than any other Republican, even John McCain.
And after a year of comparing Romney to McCain, of sizing up the two in person and in the media, Granite Staters are turning back to McCain. The former Navy pilot, once written off by the national media establishment, is now in a statistical dead heat with Romney here.
How could that be? Romney has all the advantages: money, organization, geographic proximity, statesman-like hair, etc.
But he lacks something John McCain has in spades: conviction.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.