The surge of US forces in Iraq since February has led to an increase in internally displaced Iraqis across the country, according to two humanitarian groups.
Statistics collected by one of the two humanitarian groups, the Iraqi Red Crescent Organization, indicate that the total number of internally displaced Iraqis has more than doubled, to 1.1 million from 499,000, since the buildup started in February.
Those figures are broadly consistent with data compiled independently by an office in the United Nations that specializes in tracking wide-scale dislocations. That office, the International Organization for Migration, found that in recent months the rate of displacement in Baghdad, where the buildup is focused, had increased by as much as a factor of 20, although part of that rise could have stemmed from improved monitoring of displaced Iraqis by the government in Baghdad, the capital.
I have to admit that I find the argument from pro-surge supporters that the security situation has improved for Iraqi civilians to be completely dubious. Sure, there are some neighborhoods that have seen progress, but there are others like Dora that seem to have disintegrated again. This has happened with every operation in the war up to now; some areas benefit and others suffer as the warring parties find new turf. If anything is leading to civilian peace, ironically, it might be that there are no minority targets left in neighborhoods and towns across Iraq.
Kevin Drum analyzed the security situation this summer, comparing it to last summer, and found little or no signs of improvement. The Iraqi government stopped counting civilian deaths this spring so overall numbers are unreliable. But other metrics show little improvement in civilian security.
So what’s the upshot of all this? If we are going to make a realistic evaluation of the surge – even beyond the political futility in Maliki’s government – then we need to be skeptical of Administration claims that security has improved. If anything, the Yazidi catastrophe confirms that while mass casualty events may have dropped a bit in Baghdad itself, they are still common events elsewhere in the country. The bomb-makers aren’t going out of business in Iraq. And these internal displacement numbers show the security situation continuing to deteriorate as neighborhoods previously spared by the sectarian civil war now witness daily clashes and threats of expulsion.
If there has been any success at all with the surge, it’s been the rise of anti-AQI Sunnis, especially in Anbar but also in some portions of Baghdad and Diyala. This is a real accomplishment, regardless of the fact that it was driven by Sunnis themselves before the surge even began. Petraeus was smart enough to recognize a promising development in the Anbar Salvation Council and exploit it. The marginalization of AQI helps reduce the propaganda power of Iraq to jihadists overseas; AQI is more likely to recruit from the outside and trumpet its accomplishments elsewhere than run-of-the-mill nationalists.
But that’s the bulk of the surge’s achievement. Let’s not fool ourselves with talk about significant improvements in security for Iraqi civilians. The surge has had some positive results, but not many. And when you add the political developments, Iraq looks no closer to a peaceful resolution now than in February. Iraqi Sunnis and Shi’ites are in no mood to coexist peacefully, and are continuing to arm themselves (often with US aid) for the next phase of the civil war. That should be the final determinant on whether we should continue with this course.