Could this be why President George Bush and his political guru Karl Rove are reportedly so serene about the upcoming elections, despite a barrage of bad news polls?
Despite a rush of campaign donations to Democrats earlier this year, Republican incumbents in highly competitive races in the House have a substantial cash advantage going into the final weeks before the midterm elections.
Democrats spent more heavily over the summer and early autumn than their Republican rivals in pivotal House districts, leaving themselves at a disadvantage of more than 2 to 1 in money on hand, according to a Washington Post analysis of the latest campaign disclosures.
And remember the old saying: what matters is the first impression — and the last impression. MORE:
What this means is that Republicans have the wherewithal to slow down the tide that’s been running against them this year,” said Michael J. Malbin, executive director of the nonpartisan Campaign Finance Institute, which tracks election funding.
To capture control of the House on Nov. 7, Democrats need to gain 15 seats. Analysts in both parties acknowledge that Republicans are virtually certain to lose at least a handful of seats. But whether that number falls short or surpasses the 15-seat threshold, they agree, could hinge on campaign fundamentals such as the amount of money available to candidates.
At the same time, Democrats are on a better financial footing in open seats — those in which an incumbent is not running. Of the 12 open House races considered tight, Republicans have more cash on hand in seven of them and Democrats are ahead in five, the Post analysis shows.
So the Democrats might not yet count their chickens because there could be some fowl — and heavy — GOP advertising in the last weeks of the campaign. Wait until AFTER the votes are counted to measure the House draperies…
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.