The scuttlebutt about Iowa is that Senator Barack Obama could win…but on the other hand he could lose.
Or Hillary Clinton could win, or she could lose.
Why? Because their margin of error is slim. But there’s one thing about which the margin of error is not slim: the growing perception that Senator Hillary Clinton now carries some negative baggage that is so notable that TSA may soon demand to inspect it.
Yet, Democrats truly want to win in 2008 so Republicans who are hoping for a bitterly-split party might be wise not to base their election strategy on it. The Philadelphia Inquirer:
A lot of Democrats in this state agree with Jana Linderman and Yvonne Weber.
With Iowa’s first-in-the-nation presidential caucuses less than four weeks away, they’ve made a conscious choice not to support Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.
And their rejection of the national Democratic front-runner is carefully reasoned and deeply felt.
“I think her politics and her style are very much the same as the Bush White House and the Karl Rove political playbook,” said Linderman, a young lawyer from Cedar Rapids, who’s supporting Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. “As a Democrat, I’m tired of that, of people talking down to me, using political tactics that have been focus-grouped.”
“She’s at the bottom of my list,” said Weber, 53, a schoolteacher from Mason City, who’s undecided. “She has too many corporate connections, and her position on Iran really steamed me. But if she’s the nominee, I’ll be 100 percent behind her.”
Clinton might win the Iowa caucuses; recent polls have her a close second to Obama, within the margin of error. She has assembled a strong political organization and has a committed base. And even if she fails to win Iowa, she’ll still be in a strong position to win the nomination.
The piece quotes a Clinton spokesman as talking about how receptive voters there are, and the turn out to vote campaign. Etc. But it also notes that Clinton is faced with “legions of doubters” within her own party — but they’re making it clear they will support her if she gets the nomination.
A poll published this month by the Des Moines Register found that 30 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers have an unfavorable opinion of the New York senator. Only 13 percent had unfavorable views of former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina; for Obama, the figure was 14 percent.
All of this might turn out to be a fleeting, Iowa-only phenomenon. If not, then the Clinton campaign could have reason for concern down the road – if not in securing the nomination, then in generating enthusiasm come the fall.
Interviews with two dozen Democrats – conducted at political events sponsored by groups not affiliated with any candidate or by candidates other than Clinton – gave voice to those poll numbers.
Some voters expressed concerns about Clinton’s electability, saying they see her as a divisive figure.
“The way the conservative attack machine works, I worry that everything on our agenda would be clouded over if she were the candidate,” said Bryan Tipton, 45, an undecided Democrat from Newton, Iowa, who has dropped Clinton from his own considerations.
Such concerns were evident in early October as well, when a reporter asked similar questions in similar settings. What was new this month was the number of negative comments about Clinton herself.
So Clinton’s biggest concern has been: she is NOT closing the sale. People may be buying, but so far it looks as if they’re getting ready to buy the product holding their breath, hoping it doesn’t prove to be a dud.
This is an opening for the Republicans. And, you can be sure, they will work hard to convince voters that the product is a dud or not as trustworthy as the product they offer.
Clinton’s task therefore becomes threefold. She must (1) win the nomination, (2) continue her apparently-successful efforts to battle her fellow Democrats but not alienate other Democratic voters, (3) work to close the sale — because if she cannot effectively and definitively close it with Democratic voters she is likely to have trouble closing it with independent voters and she will never peel away many Republican voters. It is highly unlikely that either party can win in 2008 by only winning the votes of its base.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.