Let me begin by saying that I do recognize that the current swine flu outbreak is serious and it is important for us to be cautious in dealing with it. It is also quite appropriate for the media to give significant coverage to the topic and for all of us to be prepared. The government should be working to stockpile proper supplies of serum to prevent it from getting out of control.
However, I do think that there is a bit of an overreaction to the current situation. Part of this is a result of the media and its tendency to go overboard on any story. Part of it is a result of a modern habit of turning everything into a crisis (I’m waiting for Helen Lovejoy to ask about the children). Perhaps part of it is just the modern media era in which every little story becomes a major event.
But it would be a good idea to put things into perspective by looking at some past pandemics.
The granddaddy of all pandemics was, of course, the Black Death which swept through Europe during the Middle Ages. This disease is estimated to have infected about half of the public and of those infected about two thirds of them died. In other words about one out of three people died, a toll which would exceed one hundred million people.
After World War One, we had a pandemic flu which was estimated to have infected about one in three people around the world. Of those infected about 5-10% died, a death toll of about 1-3% (a 10 fold reduction from the Black Death) which worked out to a death toll of perhaps 25-50 million around the world.
Looking at our current pandemic we have seen an infection rate so low it is hard to calculate, with the WHO estimating a few thousand people out of billions worldwide. The death toll is under 100. This does not, of course, reduce the impact to the families of those lost but it does put things in perspective.