The latest Gallup Daily tracking poll has Senator Barack Obama 9 points ahead of Senator Hillary Clinton in their bitter battle for the 2008 Democratic Presidential nomination:
Barack Obama has gained support in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report for April 4-6, and now leads Hillary Clinton by a statistically significant margin, 52% to 43%.
Obama’s current 52% support level matches his highest of the year, although his margin over Clinton was slightly larger, at 52% to 42%, in March 27-29 polling. So far this year Obama has been unable to sustain a significant lead over Clinton for more than a few days.
Obama had a particularly strong showing in Sunday’s interviewing, and it will remain to be seen if he is able to enlarge and sustain a margin of victory in the days ahead. Two events have been in the news in recent days that, in theory, could affect Democrats’ support levels for their two candidates. Bill and Hillary Clinton released their tax returns for the last eight years on Friday, reporting that they made over $100 million during that time period. Sunday Clinton’s chief campaign strategist, Mark Penn, resigned his position after reports that the public relations firm of which he is president had a conflict of interests with the Clinton campaign.
Part of the problem is that Hillary Clinton now has key several factors working against her — unless Obama stubs his toe politically or something hideous comes out about him.
Dick Polman details them. Read his whole post, but here’s an edited down summary of them:
This six-week interregnum between Democratic contests is definitely benefiting Barack Obama – as evidenced by numerous polls, all of which show a tightening race. Consider the reasons:
1. He’s getting plenty of time to introduce himself to a state where Hillary Clinton is as familiar as Hershey chocolate….
2. He’s had the time to rebound from the Jeremiah Wright crisis.
3. Cursed by the slow time clock, Hillary created her own little crisis. Obama’s woes got trumped by her Bosnia sniper fantasies, thereby rekindling the old doubts about Clintonian credibility…
4. The horserace story is frozen, and that benefits Obama….
5. Without new votes to count, every new superdelegate endorsement receives greater media attention – and that’s another plus for Obama….
6. And without new votes to count, the media watches the money. Obama just endured the worst month of his campaign, yet he still raised upwards of $40 million..
Meanwhile, Rasmussen has more bad news for Hillary Clinton — and some for Obama:
In North Carolina, Barack Obama has opened up a twenty-three percentage point lead over Hillary Clinton. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that Obama attracts 56% of the vote while Clinton earns 33%. A month ago, Obama’s lead was just seven percentage points.
While the absolute numbers are different, the trend is similar to results from Pennsylvania where Obama gained ten-points on Clinton during the month of March.
Perhaps the only disturbing news for Obama in the survey is that most Clinton voters (56%) say they are not likely to vote for the Illinois Senator in the general election against John McCain. A month ago, 45% of Clinton voters said they were not likely to vote for Obama against McCain.
Remember: polls are snapshots in time and see-saws. It’s when the snapshot doesn’t change much and the see-saw is more “see” or “saw” that one candidate can smile and the other has to start worrying.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.