The latest Gallup Daily tracking poll shows Senator Hillary Clinton now pulling slightly ahead of rival Senator Barack Obama — suggesting that she and others who seek to stop Obama from getting the Democratic nomination now have some of the Wright stuff to use to persuade Superdelegates to tilt to her:
Democrats at the national level remain very closely divided in their preferences for their party’s presidential nomination, with the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update showing 47% favoring Hillary Clinton and 46% supporting Barack Obama.
This marks the fifth consecutive Gallup Poll Daily tracking report in which the two Democratic candidates have been within a point of one another, as well as one of the few times in recent months in which the race has stabilized at the break-even point for more than a day or two. From a broad perspective, this situation marks a loss for Obama, who has generally been in the lead over Clinton for the last month. At the same time, Clinton — coming off of her victory in the Pennsylvania primary, and almost certainly benefiting from the news media focus on controversies surrounding Obama — has been unable to move into a significant lead.
Trending is important. And if this trend continues Clinton will have some data to argue to Superdelegates that she is candidate who could most easily beat presumptive Republican nominee Senator John McCain (the guy who is watching the Democratic race with a huge smile on his face).
On the other hand, Rasmussen Reports finds the Clinton-Obama race remains stable — although expectations that Obama will be the next President are going south:
The Democratic Presidential Nomination remains stable. It’s Obama 49%, Clinton 41% (see recent Democratic Nomination results). Rasmussen Markets data, however, shows Obama’s chances for winning the nomination have slipped four percentage points since yesterday. Currently, the frontrunner is given a 76.0 % chance of victory.
Data from the Rasmussen Markets also shows that expectations for Obama to be the next President have also declined. As of Tuesday morning, expectations for Obama to win the White House were at 44%. That’s down from 49% a week ago and 54% a week-and-a-half ago. The decline is likely the result of both the Pennsylvania Primary results and the re-emergence of Jeremiah Wright in the media spotlight. Polling data released yesterday shows that both Republicans and unaffiliated voters are less likely to believe that Obama is a stronger general election candidate than Clinton.
Clinton has unleashed a potential nightmare scenario for the Democrats with her claim to be leading in the popular vote. If Clinton is able to carry such a claim to the convention, it could significantly complicate efforts to unify Democrats for the fall campaign. The only way for Obama to effectively eliminate this potential problem is to do well enough in the remaining primaries so that he wins the popular vote no matter how it is counted.
That’ll be hard for Obama to do with Wright on his back, pounding him on the head and tripping him.
Cartoon by John Darkow, Columbia Daily Tribune, Missouri
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.