The latest Gallup Daily tracking poll shows Democratic Senator Barack Obama 11 percentage points ahead of his Presidential nomination rival Senator Hillary Clinton — and both at this point could narrowly beat Republican presumptive nominee Senator John McCain:
Barack Obama continues to hold a solid lead over Hillary Clinton in national Democratic voters’ nomination preferences, 53% to 42%, in Gallup Poll Daily tracking.
The result, based on May 19-21 polling, is the first to include interviewing following Tuesday’s Kentucky and Oregon primaries. The early indication is that the split of those contests (Obama winning Oregon, Clinton Kentucky) is not changing the dynamics of the race.
So Tuesday votes changed little minds, which means Obama retains the lead, Gallup notes:
Obama is establishing himself as the clear leader — he opened up a double-digit lead five days ago, and has led by at least 11 percentage points each day since then. While he has generally been ahead of Clinton in Gallup Poll Daily tracking since the Feb. 5 Super Tuesday primaries, he never established a consistent, significant lead until the past few days.
Gallup notes that only three more contests remain. But, more importantly:
Perhaps more consequential than those primaries is the May 31 Democratic Party meeting to decide the fate of the disputed Michigan and Florida convention delegations.
This is the issue Clinton has said is similar in some ways to the issue of slavery, voter suppression and the controversial 2000 Supreme Court election that decided the election in favor of Republican George Bush.
As far as electability, Gallup finds little difference between how Obama or McCain would fare against McCain:
In the latest update, based on May 17-21 polling, 47% of registered voters say they would vote for Obama if the election were held today, and 44% for McCain…Clinton has a slightly larger lead over McCain, 49% to 44%. That matches her best showing versus McCain since Gallup began tracking the general election in mid-March.
That isn’t stunning proof that one of the Democrats is more electable than the other. Which is perhaps why the Florida and Michigan showdown is more important than ever and Clinton is pulling out all rhetorical stops including suggesting that if her arguments aren’t accepted Obama would get a nomination that was not legitimate.
Meanwhile, Rasmussen reports has different numbers.
It finds McCain would beat obama 46 percent to 42 percent — the first time either candidate has been ahead by four points.
And Rasmussen finds Obama ahead of Clinton by a smaller margin — andhas declared the Democratic race “over.”
In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 50% to 42% advantage over Clinton nationally. As noted over a week ago, Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up. Data from Rasmussen Markets give Obama a 92.9 % chance of winning the nomination. Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 45%.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.