Horses running a race can be most easily injured in the home stretch.
Why? Because their jockeys can become over-enthused with the thrill of the neck and neck, with the small gains made on the inside curve of the track, losing focus on riding the horse evenhandedly, and instead being swept away in a thrall of jerking speed and imagined glory… aiming too soon for the finish line.
Thus, possibly the greatest threat to each Presidential candidate now, is not the other competing candidates.
My dad who followed the ponies, said Willie Shoemaker, the diminutive 4’11” thoroughbred jockey who raced and won at Belmont, Preakness and The Kentucky Derby, rode smooth in the homestretch, like the wind over mountains, but not like a tornado…
else even a masterful rider can accidentally cripple his horse in the final moments and scotch his own finish.
Thus one of the greatest threats to the candidates now with the homestretch in sight, is they might in the thrall of the final moments of the race, read their own abilities wrongly; they might falter on the timing to take their butt-high stances in the stirrups, and to fatally abandon their steady lean into the reins, whirling instead and losing focus.
Willie Shoemaker again: “I lost the K. Derby in ’57 because I stood in the stirrups too soon; I’d misjudged the finish line.”
To judge the finish line in error, and to allow aggression, enthusiasm and the thrill of it all to unwisely influence his or her choices in strategy during the coming days… that ought to be the prime consideration of the candidates.
Too cock-sure, and votes will be lost while the candidate’s benefactors unwisely cheer. Too timid, and votes will be lost while the benefactors cheer, for they do not see the falter, only the love of their candidate.
For a candidate to become lost in his or her own cheering section, or to be snagged by the jeering of those who would try to decimate him or her… either one of these will cause a deadly veering, a loss of judgment and focus in the homestretch.
Every horse has its tolerances for endurance and speed; a race is not won by ‘full speed all the way,’ but by ‘resting speed’ and ‘all out speed,’ in tandem, measured and irregular intervals. Thus now, even small mis-steps in timing or velocity of words and actions can prove disastrous to the candidates.
The signs of the finish line? The February date, of course. But as much, what we see now: the consolidation of former candidates suddenly standing behind candidates still chucking forward in the race. Public talk, by name, about potential vice-presidents. Many pundits repeating themselves endlessly with little new to say. Frontrunners growing bolder, more muscled. The veins showing.
It’s now or never to prepare for the final sprint. Holding back will not win. But neither will charging aggressively ahead too soon.
Like my father said about Willie Boy: “It takes a nobody to ride a horse, but it takes finesse to win.”
That ‘standing in the stirrups too soon,’ comes from the human instinct called agressio in Latin, meaning to attack, but not only with mal-intent,
Agression also can mean to behave with intent and over the top with humor, so that one becomes giddy instead of serious,
or to become over-engaged with pie-in-the-sky dreams,
or to be suddenly spilling over with repetitious babble and vapid rhetoric,
to keep scratching on the old saws in hackneyed ways: children, safety, and mother pie,
to mistake ire, payback, underhandedness… as passion,
to become overly-excited by the treasure now in sight, and to lose one or more wits as a result,
to use thick ‘leaderly’ persona (the mask that covers over flaws and errors) to promise unpromisable things, instead of speaking from a calm, strong, authentic self.
If we lived in ancient Roman times and had seers instead of Tiresias-like pundits, the sacred oracles, like Willie-Boy, might likely warn:
The homestretch is the most dangerous time…for even a time-tested fast rider, can misjudge the distance to the finish line, and rise up from the saddle too soon, losing the race.
Might those ancient seers say too, meaning for the good of each contender: Approaches now Quintus de Februarius, the fifth of February, a time of both danger and opportunity: Remain alert. Measure well.