Cross-posted to Random Fate.
PARIS and GRENOBLE, France – The “Non!” vote has carried the day, in no uncertain terms. However, it is important to remember the wise words of an American politician, the equivalent of which I have yet to encounter here in France:
All politics is local.
-Senator Thomas P.”Tip” O’Neill
I visited Paris the weekend before the election, and while I walked about town I looked to see any signs of advocacy for either a “Oui” or a “Non” vote. The “Non” was easily found on the public boards that are placed in prominent pedestrian areas here in France for any election. The “Oui” posters were significantly harder to find, in both Paris the weekend before the election, and in Grenoble for the past several weeks.
In the end, here are samples of the only “Oui” posters I was able to find (click any image to get a larger picture):
The lack of “Oui” posters was surprising in this vibrant, combative, discursive political environment and indicated the true depth of uncertainty involved.
There are many here in France who say that the goal of President Jacques Chirac was to break the power of the Socialists and other left parties such as the Greens (in the second Paris poster image above) to preserve his own power. Unfortunately for him, he appears to have miscalculated regarding his ability to get a “Oui” or “Yes” vote from the populace at large. The far left has indeed lost power, but apparently so has President Chirac.
However, it is important to remember, not everything is always as it seems. As was once said in a song:
When the world falls apart
Some things stay in place
-Dave Stewart and Barbara Gaskin
In the end, what does this mean to President Chirac, and to the idea of a closer European Union?
For Chirac, it is a decisive rejection of the results of his recent policies.
This means nothing more than the recent low polling numbers for President George W. Bush in the United States, poll numbers which in the US are driven more by high prices for gasoline than by any more fundamental dissatisfaction.
In France, they are driven by the apparent turning away from what is regarded as the “French socialism” of long term unemployment benefits and comparatively high retirement income.
To put it in simple, straightforward terms, the population of France is simply afraid. Afraid of two things: first, of losing the wonderful social benefits that have recently been cut because of fiscal constraints, retirement benefits, unemployment benefits, and medical benefits, all provided by the French government as part of the “French socialism” that was until recently regarded as such a success here in France.
The second fear? The fear of job losses to the new nations recently accepted into the European Union from the former Warsaw Pact. I can speak from personal experience in Prague, the capital of the Czech Republic, prices there are MUCH cheaper, and I presume the labor and other expenses are as well. When there is a cheaper alternative within the EU, why choose France?
Not an unreasonable question, nor an unreasonable fear of the answer.
All politics is local.
Europe did not lose in this election, President Chirac and his policies aimed at making France more competitive at the expense of the French socialism lost the election.
Chirac could have taken the decision to the French legislature for a guaranteed passage, as was done in Germany, but he chose the more risky path to reduce the power of the far left.
He accomplished his aim, at the expense of his own power as well.
Will the idea of Europe (an idea, or rather an ideal, more than a reality, even now after the advent of the common currency and the free travel between nations without the need of a passport) die after this vote?
No.
It may provide a much needed breather to allow the population to catch up with the politicians, however.
The ideal of Europe is hard to describe to those who have not encountered it first hand, yet it is indeed there, and this ideal is stronger than any single vote rejecting a huge Constitution for Europe.
The ideal survives, and will eventually prevail despite momentary setbacks.
Expect a lot of changes in Europe in the next decade.