A new Fox News poll — adding to the roller coaster of sometimes contradictory polls — now shows the Democrats way ahead:
Nearly half of likely voters — 49 percent — favor the Democratic candidate in their House district and 36 percent the Republican, with 15 percent still undecided in a FOX News poll conducted the final weekend before the midterm elections.
More Democrats (37 percent) than Republicans (26 percent) say they are extremely interested in tomorrow’s elections, and more Democrats (89 percent) than Republicans (81 percent) say they plan to vote for their party’s candidate in their district.
“The issue is whether Republican targeting and their ‘get-out-to-vote’ machine can overcome the greater Democratic interest in the electorate,” says Opinion Dynamics Chairman John Gorman. “Who is likely to vote will make the difference tomorrow.”
Have the Democrats learned to pull out all stops? Or will they be bested again? And then there is this tidbit — one we have talked about a bit on this site:
Independents favor the Democratic candidate by 42 percent to 27 percent, with 30 percent saying they will vote for a third party candidate or are still undecided, which raises the question of whether these independents really will vote tomorrow.
And this can’t be good news if it holds up:
Among those saying they will vote for the Democratic House candidate, twice as many say it is because they want a change in leadership (54 percent), while others say it is because they agree with the policies of the Democratic Party (21 percent).
On the flip side, those voting for the Republican are more likely to say their vote is because they agree with the party’s policies (40 percent), than to keep the current leadership (29 percent).
Votes for the Democratic candidates look more solid: 86 percent say they will definitely vote for the Democrat and 12 percent say they could still change their mind. Among those favoring the Republican candidate in their district, 78 percent are definite they will vote that way and 19 percent say they may change their vote.
Most likely, it’s because Democrats are madder this year. Will independents and moderates react the same way on Tuesday?
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.