Tidbit of the Day: On the day that a new scandal involving a White House Secret Service agent comes to light (an agent left a bullet in the hotel room of a woman he met in a bar at the Hay-Adams Hotel in Washington), many are talking about how it violates the simple Secret Service creed to not embarrass the President and the White House. Because these days, it’s impossible for this President and White House to be embarrassed on anything, isn’t it?
One is polished to the point of being professorial, the other folksy to the point of clumsiness. One is almost sartorial, while the other shoots from the hip. One had a middle-class upbringing minus a father, the other is just one of a Brahmin, extremely well-to-do clan. Yes, I’ve heard it said many times that for all the background and stylistic differences between President Barack Obama and ex-President George W. Bush, the “Odd Couple” pair may actually be two peas in a pod. If so, they are not the first back-to-back Presidents to be such.
FDR and Truman were night and day as far as background and style and Lord knows that JFK and LBJ had about as much in common as Iron Maiden and Mozart. But for all of their differences, a confluence of events have added similarities to the Presidencies of 43 and 44 which, for current affairs and history alike, may leave both wondering how such transparent weaknesses could occur.
Ironic isn’t it. The Obama tide in 2008 stemmed from such discontent with the policies of Bush 43 that Independents and even some Republicans were almost accompanied to the voting booth by their consciences on the way to change.
In office, the Obama/Bush comparisons are striking. Both had first terms dominated by signature global situations that were far from choice, (Bush had 9/11 and Obama an economic malaise) but which blossomed into other defining legacies that were entirely their doing. Indeed, it’s stating the obvious to say that the Iraq War and the Affordable Care Act were far from universally embraced but each President, using their popularity, persuasion, and stern belief that is was right, got them through.
For Bush, it was 9/11 blossoming into the Obamacare and the Iraq War. The tempestuous and fairly unpopular endeavors were at the heart of the debate going into each President’s re-election campaigns. Both suffered from desultory debate performances that left even their die-hard supporters grasping at straws. But both benefited from Massachusetts opponents who started with great potential, but who struggled to define themselves and had one or more verbal stumbles that the other side was able to adroitly exploit in a devastating way. By the same token, both Presidents by true believers on the other side from the start, each had a core, almost holier than thou base among their own party. And in the end, that was enough to propel both to a second term with just under 51%.
Enter term two. The challenges from the first terms of both Presidents had been largely rectified. The Bush administration had made many strides on capturing terrorists while for Obama, the economy largely pushed back. But for Bush, the war of his doing dragged on and that was just the beginning. 43 would be further hurt by his handling of Katrina, just as Obama was tainted by Syria. The obfuscation of the Bush White House when Vice-President Cheney accidentally shot his friend during a hunting trip, and a plan to sell to lease oil in the Port of Dubai were further cause of accusations of tone deafness.
As the war dragged on and casualties mounted, the bad days and rough poll numbers never subsided. The economy may have been the final straw as voters veered toward change in the voting booth.
And for Obama. Oh, for Obama. First came the disastrous roll-out of the Affordable Care Act site, prompting the question, why didn’t someone ask questions about it’s readiness? If so, why didn’t they report their findings to the higher-ups? And then came the cancellations.
In short, the view that both Presidents were detached seemed to reign supreme. For Bush, that generated into the election. Republicans lost 30 seats in the House, enough to lose the majority. The Senate flipped from a healthy 55-45 advantage to a 51-49 deficit. Fast forward to today. The House is already in Republican hands but that doesn’t mean Democrats can’t lose another 25-30 seats. But ironically, the Democrats control the Senate by the same 55-45 majority as their Republican counterparts in 2006, and the party in power has many, many more inviting targets taken the Republicans.
And there’s another similarity with the two men. Their approval ratings. Gallup recently released a poll that showed President Obama’s approval at a record low, 39%. It was literally the period between November 15 and 19 at this time in year one of Bush’s second term that Bush fell to his lowest rating to date, 38%. His problem mirrors Bush 43’s. That he is neither seen as trustworthy or fully in command of situations.
Bush seemed unconcerned with the political toll of the war and Obama has shown little in terms of even Rose Gardening his way to the American people about a cancellation fix prior to yesterday, which may end up merely being a cup of water on a forest fire.
Now there is one key difference between Obama and his predecessor that remains to be seen and that’s, will his approval keep dropping in perpetuity. After all, Bush’s final number upon leaving office was 22%, which he acknowledged to be pivotal in Obama’s White House win.
With one year before the crucial mid-term elections, many questions remain. Will the administration and Congress compromise on allowing folk who have been kicked off of their insurance plans to keep them? Will Republicans force another shutdown? If the health care mess still looms, will the American people mind if there is one? Will Obama and his party still take the blame come November of 2014. If a “fix” does occur and is satisfactory to most Americans, will Democrats reap a benefit. If it backfires, will it remain an issue until the conclusion of Obama’s term. That’s the least appealing scenario. For his popularity and legacy
For all of these questions, time will tell. But for Obama 44 who promised change from Bush 43, the similarities in both governing and legacy, may be all too close.