I wrote up a little post the other day about how important GOTV is in close elections. Well, here’s a little article about five commonly held myths on GOTV. Many of them have floated around these parts.
In a summary of the article at MyDD, the five myths are:
1) Voter turnout is lower than previous decades.
This is a myth because it fails to take into account the rising number felons and immigrants unable to vote. Taking those legally unable to vote out of the picture, turnout rates haven’t decline at all since the 1960s.
2) Turnout is greater in other countries, thus we don’t care as much about democracy.
We do turn out a bit lower, but we also vote a lot more often than in parliamentary systems. Voters might get a little fatigued by it.
3) Negatives ads drive turnout down.
Much as Joe wishes it were so, negative advertising does not have make turnout drop. In fact, it actually drives turnout up because negative ads attract attention. I imagine there is a point of diminishing returns, though, as competing negative ads drown each other out.
4) Republican GOTV is far superior to the Democrats’ GOTV.
This is one of the more annoying myths because it builds up the status of Karl Rove unnecessarily. Rover did a masterful job at improving the GOP’s turnout program by watching how labor operated in 1998 and 2000. Rove started microtargeting – hitting GOP voters in Democratic areas – by tracking purchasing patterns. But GOP GOTV doesn’t operate in a vacuum. Democrats have very effective turnout systems in place. In 2004, more Democrats turned out to vote than ever before. What killed the Dems was messaging, not turnout.
5) Increased registration will get more voters to the polls.
Motor voter laws have not led to increased turnout for one simple reason: registering to vote and actually voting are two totally different things. One you can do when you make your semi-regular trip to the DMV. The other you have to make a special trip to do. However, election day registration states do see increased turnout. I know Wisconsin has it, and it really helped in some areas to drive turnout up. Making people register a month ahead of time can be a struggle.
So keep these things in mind when people talk about turnout. It only results in a one or two point difference in the end. You’re basically talking about lazy, busy or uninformed voters who need special motivation to go to the polls. With both parties invested in the ground game, there is little chance GOTV will swing elections either way.